The MacroEconomic Calendar
The MacroEconomic Calendar
Jun 16, 2025
Week of June 16, 2025
Week of June 16, 2025
Joseph Gradante, Allio CEO
Macro Economic Calendar: Week of June 16, 2025
The Setup & Where to Focus
Stocks were little changed last week despite a plethora of macroeconomic data and geopolitical volatility catalysts.
• The S&P 500 dipped 0.4%, with a 1.1% decline on Friday in the wake of Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and key military personnel. The Nasdaq Composite also gave back fractional ground during what was a low volatility stretch before Thursday's Middle East developments.
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) drifted toward its lowest levels since February before popping to end the week—Wall Street’s fear gauge stood near 21 amid uncertainty surrounding the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict.
By week’s end, all eyes were on what might come next overseas.
• On Friday, oil posted its biggest single-session rally since March of 2022, back in the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The prompt-month price of WTI has now rallied almost $20 from its post-Liberation Day low, which throws a wrench in the tame inflation narrative that both the CPI and PPI reports from last week relayed to Wall Street.
• This week, Retail Sales is the headliner on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Markets are closed on Thursday, and Friday is a major options expiration date.
Digging into the sectors, Energy (XLE) was far and away the best performer.
• The oil and gas niche, which is only about 3% of the S&P 500, soared by 6% for its biggest one-week gain since January. Relative to the SPX's return, XLE has had its best performance since the week of last October. Advances were larger in the SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP) and VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH).
• But even with the climb, the Energy sector trades at a modest 15x forward price-to-earnings ratio, while its total shareholder yield (which combines the dividend yield and the net buyback yield) is the highest of the 11 S&P 500 groups.
Last week highlighted an important Intermarket relationship that investors have come to notice in recent cycles. In these cycles, some investors have favored energy sector stocks over Treasuries during periods of geopolitical turmoil, believing they offer better diversification benefits. Whether this relationship will hold in the future is uncertain. Recall that in 2022, when the bond market endured its worst bear market on record, money flowed into both big and small oil and gas equities.
• Some investors utilize energy stocks as a potential hedge against certain market risks, but the question now is whether that will continue. Or were last Friday’s events a flash in the pan? We should find out more this week.
Health Care (XLV) also performed well. Big pharma and the health insurance industry had struggled mightily through early June, but fat gains in Eli Lilly (LLY) and some of its drugmaker competitors helped lift the sector.
• Investors were also seeking safety, and a modest rotation out of software and Financials likely benefited the beaten-down healthcare area.
• Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the only other sectors to post positive returns last week.
Financials (XLF) was indeed the worst-performing group, although its losses flew under the radar somewhat. Interest rates drifted lower last week, but perhaps the biggest story was the potential disruption that may come in the payment industry.
• On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) are exploring issuing their own stablecoins to effectively bypass the likes of Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and American Express (AXP). The trio of stocks plunged to finish the week, dragging down the Financials sector.
• There are also macro implications to this potential shift. You see if major retailers begin using individual stablecoins as a payment network, that might also result in higher demand for Treasuries since stablecoins generally require a one-to-one exchange ratio with dollars. Another macro twist is that stablecoin as a unit of exchange could steal some of Bitcoin’s thunder. We’ll have to monitor how this plays out.
• Compounding problems in XLF were steep drops among insurance stocks—several analyst downgrades stung what had been a slow and steady climber.
Finally, Aerospace & Defense (ITA) within the Industrials (XLI) sector caught a big bid Friday for obvious reasons, but the plane crash in India that killed at least 290 people was a Boeing (BA) Dreamliner and the first loss of a 787 jet.
• Both BA and GE Aerospace (GE) were sold off in what would have otherwise been a bullish week for defense names. Indeed, RTX Technologies (RTX), Northrup Grumman(NOC), L3Harris (LHX), General Dynamics (GD), and Lockheed Martin (LMT) all jumped.
• Travel stocks in the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector struggled last Friday.
Amid much moving and shaking within the S&P 500, US mid- and small-cap equities underperformed.
• The SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust (MDY) shed 1.4%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell by the same amount. IWM, specifically, had rallied through technical resistance to test its 200-day moving average, but its outperformance to the S&P 500 was short-lived.
• IWM lost ground to the SPX in each session from Tuesday through Friday last week, even though the CPI and PPI reports offered hope that Fed rate cuts may come sooner rather than later.
• The “SMID” caps must pull off a high-wire act to post alpha—if economic conditions are too strong, the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rate policy would be a headwind. If the macro situation deteriorates, the group’s cyclicality will work against them.
• Year-to-date, IWM is down 5%, MDY is off by 3%, while the S&P 500 (SPY) has returned2%.
With the threat of war shoved to the front page, you’d think international stocks would be a precarious place to be positioned. Perhaps not.
• The Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) was down just 0.2% last week, though it did underperform on Friday. International small caps (VSS) are now up to 10 weeks running.
• More losses in the US Dollar Index (DXY) helped foreign shares on a relative basis to the US once again. Before the Friday rally, the greenback had reached its lowest level since March 2022.
• European equities, as represented by the ETF VGK, have shown strong performance and are on track for one of their better first-half returns of this century, while the DXY’s YTD performance tracks with 2003 for its worst start to a year since 1974. It’s worth noting that the dollar was highly valued going into 2025, and we saw similar price action in Year 1 of President Trump’s first term before the DXY stabilized.
• Considering Israel’s strikes on Iran, it was not surprising to see declines in the 2-3% range among Middle East country ETFs. Still, the drops were not extreme.
The bond market had a lot to handle last week.
• Trade talks in London were reportedly encouraging, so optimism swelled in both equities and fixed income based on what the US and China had to say about diplomatic pow-wow.
• Later, the CPI and PPI report confirmed that May inflation was much softer than Wall Street economists had expected, also driving a bid for bonds. Yields initially dropped when the Israel-Iran news broke, but the narrative then took a 180-degree turn.
• Historical geopolitical episodes featured a flight to safety trade in which investors piled into US Treasuries, but that didn’t happen this time. Interest rates rose throughout the day on Friday as traders viewed the threat of sustained higher oil prices as an inflation risk.
• As if the Fed had enough macro balls to juggle, yet another was thrown at them. If oil prices hang out in the mid-$70s, however, that should still leave plenty of room for Chair Powell and the rest of the FOMC to begin cutting rates, perhaps resuming in September. There’s even about a one in five chance of a July ease, though that would likely require not only cool June inflation readings but also a marked slowdown in employment.
Turning to commodities, we’ve touched on some of the big happenings already.
• To put a bow on it, WTI crude oil surged 13% last week. Interestingly, oil prices were on the rise well before the first missiles were launched overnight Thursday into Friday. WTI bottomed at $56 per barrel in April and is only now returning to the levels it traded in January.
• Gasoline futures rose 7.5% last week to settle at $2.24, implying a national average pump price of about $3.25 by Independence Day, which would be down 30 cents from July 4, 2024.
• Gold fell two bucks shy of a record daily close on Friday, but the $3,432 settle was good enough for a new all-time weekly high.
• Finally, bitcoin wobbled, trading near $105,000 by Saturday.
Weekly Calendar Look Ahead
We’ll pack in a bunch of key macro data this week before the stock and bond market holiday on Thursday. May data has been on target so far—the nonfarm payrolls report was fine, while CPI and PPI were tame. Eyes now turn to Retail Sales, which prints on Tuesday. Then it’s all about the Fed on Wednesday. Let’s dig in.
Monday is light, so the focus will be on developments in the Middle East.
• The only notable economic news comes from the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; the regional PMI survey has been negative for three months running. The 8:30 a.m. ET report shouldn’t move markets much, but its internals, such as employment and selling prices, will be interesting to peek at.
• Treasury bill auctions are held later in the morning, with the 20-year Treasury auction occurring in the afternoon. Recall last time around that weak demand for the 20-year Treasury, an orphaned part of the curve stoked another leg of the so-called “sell America” trade. We think that’s unlikely to happen again, considering healthy bidding at recent 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions.
• Other happenings include Amazon (AMZN) hosting its AWS re: Inforce conference in Philadelphia, the Paris Air Show, featuring aerospace firms, and earnings from homebuilder Lennar (LEN).
Tuesday is all about Retail Sales, and expectations are not high.
• The consensus calls for a 0.5% decline in May spending with a 0.1% dip in the core control group, which feeds most directly into GDP. Ex autos and retail sales likely ticked up, but only slightly. A weak dataset would back up light CPI figures—when a macro slowdown transpires, it’s common to see both consumption and prices ease or even fall.
• Despite strong household spending around Memorial Day, we expect a downshift, which would support the cause for a Fed rate cut before long. Of course, a still-decent labor market should prevent a significant spending drop.
• Also hitting the tape in the premarket will be May import/export price data—another inflation gauge. Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and ManufacturingProduction are cyclical reports that are likely to be tepid at best for the last month. Then, at 10 a.m. ET, Business Inventories for April, and the NAHB Housing Market Index for June hit, but those won’t be major volatility catalysts.
Wednesday is Fed Day.
• There won’t be any change in the policy rate, but the June FOMC gathering means macro-onlookers will get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We anticipate that voting members’ dot plots will show slightly softer GDP growth, with a slight upward nudge in inflation estimates.
• While the term 'stagflation' may appear in financial media, we believe it's important to focus on the underlying economic data and long-term trends. The Federal Reserve's economic projections are subject to change and have historically been revised as new data becomes available.
• Mechanically, FOMC members have already submitted their projections, although they may tweak them in light of recent geopolitical turmoil. Regardless, what Powell says in the press conference may move markets more than what’s on paper.
• The Fed chief will be peppered with questions on the gradual weakening of the labor market and the prospects for a “shadow” Fed chair emerging well before Powell’s term is up next May.
• Before the Fed decision is released at 2 p.m. ET, Initial Claims prints before the bell—this one will be important to slice and dice since Continuing Claims soared to its highest mark since late 2021 last week, and the four-week moving average of Initial Claims has ticked to the loftiest mark since August 2023. A number above 250,000 on initial and two million on continuing would stir up recession chatter and pull forward Fed rate cut odds.
Thursday is a holiday. Friday’s data slate is light with just The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the Philly Fed survey. It is a triple-witching session, though, so there could be added volatility in the final 15 minutes of trading. Things could get wonky in WTI, too, as July crude oil futures expire.
Fiscal Policy Framework
Middle East tensions took the media’s focus off of the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB), but President Trump’s July 4 deadline (more of an optimistic target) is closer into view. The Senate may look to tweak some parts of the legislation, but it’s increasingly likely that changes won’t be ‘big.’
Republican Senators are racing to finalize their version of the reconciliation package before Congress goes on recess for Independence Day, and their focus is on deeper spending cuts. We think the OBBB will reach Trump’s desk before the August recess. So, there’s still time to dissect what will be in the bill.
This week is also key on Capitol Hill because the GENIUS Act is likely to be approved by the Senate. We haven’t touched on this one yet, but it would establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, potentially creating more demand for Treasuries (akin to what we described earlier surrounding the Walmart/Amazon stablecoin news).
As for the Israel-Iran situation, it remains to be seen if the US will be drawn in. Recall that President Trump ventured on a very successful Middle East trip last month in which major tech deals were agreed to. Trump wants peace in that volatile region but has also voiced clear support for Israel. It may be the perfect opportunity for the art of the deal to play out on the geopolitical stage.
Quick Hits
• According to the Fed’s model of the US economy, a sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%...
• While the U.S. has increased its energy independence, a sustained increase in oil prices could still present headwinds for economic growth and inflation.
• Approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but it’s unlikely that Iran currently has the capacity or the incentive to block it.
• The Israeli attacks took out key nuclear facilities and Iranian military officials, but its oil reserves were largely unscathed—the energy market’s focus is on if the conflict escalates or spreads.
• Baker Hughes rig count: Drilling rigs slid for a seventh straight week to the lowest since 2021.
• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped but remains deeply politically tainted. NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked lower, also an encouraging sign ‘soft’ data point.
• China’s PPI change was -3.3% in May, the weakest since July 2023, and a significant deflationary macro force
This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment, tax, or legal advice. Please consult your financial, tax, and legal advisors for advice specific to your personal circumstances.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Allio does not assume any obligation to update the information.
Investing in the financial markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.
The information and data contained in this communication are from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Allio is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of this information.
This material may contain “forward-looking statements” which are not purely historical in nature. Such statements may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, and estimates of yields or returns. Any forward-looking statements are based upon certain assumptions, beliefs, and expectations that may not be correct or materialize. There is no guarantee that any of the events anticipated will occur or that any of the forecasts will be achieved.
References to specific securities, asset classes, and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell any security. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Allio Advisors LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Allio, including our advisory services and fees, can be found in our Form CRS and Form ADV Part 2, which are available upon request.
Macro Economic Calendar: Week of June 16, 2025
The Setup & Where to Focus
Stocks were little changed last week despite a plethora of macroeconomic data and geopolitical volatility catalysts.
• The S&P 500 dipped 0.4%, with a 1.1% decline on Friday in the wake of Israel’s attack on Iranian nuclear facilities and key military personnel. The Nasdaq Composite also gave back fractional ground during what was a low volatility stretch before Thursday's Middle East developments.
• The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) drifted toward its lowest levels since February before popping to end the week—Wall Street’s fear gauge stood near 21 amid uncertainty surrounding the fallout from the Israel-Iran conflict.
By week’s end, all eyes were on what might come next overseas.
• On Friday, oil posted its biggest single-session rally since March of 2022, back in the early stages of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The prompt-month price of WTI has now rallied almost $20 from its post-Liberation Day low, which throws a wrench in the tame inflation narrative that both the CPI and PPI reports from last week relayed to Wall Street.
• This week, Retail Sales is the headliner on Tuesday, followed by the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday afternoon. Markets are closed on Thursday, and Friday is a major options expiration date.
Digging into the sectors, Energy (XLE) was far and away the best performer.
• The oil and gas niche, which is only about 3% of the S&P 500, soared by 6% for its biggest one-week gain since January. Relative to the SPX's return, XLE has had its best performance since the week of last October. Advances were larger in the SPDR Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF (XOP) and VanEck Oil Services ETF (OIH).
• But even with the climb, the Energy sector trades at a modest 15x forward price-to-earnings ratio, while its total shareholder yield (which combines the dividend yield and the net buyback yield) is the highest of the 11 S&P 500 groups.
Last week highlighted an important Intermarket relationship that investors have come to notice in recent cycles. In these cycles, some investors have favored energy sector stocks over Treasuries during periods of geopolitical turmoil, believing they offer better diversification benefits. Whether this relationship will hold in the future is uncertain. Recall that in 2022, when the bond market endured its worst bear market on record, money flowed into both big and small oil and gas equities.
• Some investors utilize energy stocks as a potential hedge against certain market risks, but the question now is whether that will continue. Or were last Friday’s events a flash in the pan? We should find out more this week.
Health Care (XLV) also performed well. Big pharma and the health insurance industry had struggled mightily through early June, but fat gains in Eli Lilly (LLY) and some of its drugmaker competitors helped lift the sector.
• Investors were also seeking safety, and a modest rotation out of software and Financials likely benefited the beaten-down healthcare area.
• Utilities (XLU) and Consumer Discretionary (XLY) were the only other sectors to post positive returns last week.
Financials (XLF) was indeed the worst-performing group, although its losses flew under the radar somewhat. Interest rates drifted lower last week, but perhaps the biggest story was the potential disruption that may come in the payment industry.
• On Friday, The Wall Street Journal reported that Walmart (WMT) and Amazon (AMZN) are exploring issuing their own stablecoins to effectively bypass the likes of Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and American Express (AXP). The trio of stocks plunged to finish the week, dragging down the Financials sector.
• There are also macro implications to this potential shift. You see if major retailers begin using individual stablecoins as a payment network, that might also result in higher demand for Treasuries since stablecoins generally require a one-to-one exchange ratio with dollars. Another macro twist is that stablecoin as a unit of exchange could steal some of Bitcoin’s thunder. We’ll have to monitor how this plays out.
• Compounding problems in XLF were steep drops among insurance stocks—several analyst downgrades stung what had been a slow and steady climber.
Finally, Aerospace & Defense (ITA) within the Industrials (XLI) sector caught a big bid Friday for obvious reasons, but the plane crash in India that killed at least 290 people was a Boeing (BA) Dreamliner and the first loss of a 787 jet.
• Both BA and GE Aerospace (GE) were sold off in what would have otherwise been a bullish week for defense names. Indeed, RTX Technologies (RTX), Northrup Grumman(NOC), L3Harris (LHX), General Dynamics (GD), and Lockheed Martin (LMT) all jumped.
• Travel stocks in the Consumer Discretionary (XLY) sector struggled last Friday.
Amid much moving and shaking within the S&P 500, US mid- and small-cap equities underperformed.
• The SPDR S&P MIDCAP 400 ETF Trust (MDY) shed 1.4%, while the iShares Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) fell by the same amount. IWM, specifically, had rallied through technical resistance to test its 200-day moving average, but its outperformance to the S&P 500 was short-lived.
• IWM lost ground to the SPX in each session from Tuesday through Friday last week, even though the CPI and PPI reports offered hope that Fed rate cuts may come sooner rather than later.
• The “SMID” caps must pull off a high-wire act to post alpha—if economic conditions are too strong, the Fed’s “higher for longer” interest rate policy would be a headwind. If the macro situation deteriorates, the group’s cyclicality will work against them.
• Year-to-date, IWM is down 5%, MDY is off by 3%, while the S&P 500 (SPY) has returned2%.
With the threat of war shoved to the front page, you’d think international stocks would be a precarious place to be positioned. Perhaps not.
• The Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US ETF (VEU) was down just 0.2% last week, though it did underperform on Friday. International small caps (VSS) are now up to 10 weeks running.
• More losses in the US Dollar Index (DXY) helped foreign shares on a relative basis to the US once again. Before the Friday rally, the greenback had reached its lowest level since March 2022.
• European equities, as represented by the ETF VGK, have shown strong performance and are on track for one of their better first-half returns of this century, while the DXY’s YTD performance tracks with 2003 for its worst start to a year since 1974. It’s worth noting that the dollar was highly valued going into 2025, and we saw similar price action in Year 1 of President Trump’s first term before the DXY stabilized.
• Considering Israel’s strikes on Iran, it was not surprising to see declines in the 2-3% range among Middle East country ETFs. Still, the drops were not extreme.
The bond market had a lot to handle last week.
• Trade talks in London were reportedly encouraging, so optimism swelled in both equities and fixed income based on what the US and China had to say about diplomatic pow-wow.
• Later, the CPI and PPI report confirmed that May inflation was much softer than Wall Street economists had expected, also driving a bid for bonds. Yields initially dropped when the Israel-Iran news broke, but the narrative then took a 180-degree turn.
• Historical geopolitical episodes featured a flight to safety trade in which investors piled into US Treasuries, but that didn’t happen this time. Interest rates rose throughout the day on Friday as traders viewed the threat of sustained higher oil prices as an inflation risk.
• As if the Fed had enough macro balls to juggle, yet another was thrown at them. If oil prices hang out in the mid-$70s, however, that should still leave plenty of room for Chair Powell and the rest of the FOMC to begin cutting rates, perhaps resuming in September. There’s even about a one in five chance of a July ease, though that would likely require not only cool June inflation readings but also a marked slowdown in employment.
Turning to commodities, we’ve touched on some of the big happenings already.
• To put a bow on it, WTI crude oil surged 13% last week. Interestingly, oil prices were on the rise well before the first missiles were launched overnight Thursday into Friday. WTI bottomed at $56 per barrel in April and is only now returning to the levels it traded in January.
• Gasoline futures rose 7.5% last week to settle at $2.24, implying a national average pump price of about $3.25 by Independence Day, which would be down 30 cents from July 4, 2024.
• Gold fell two bucks shy of a record daily close on Friday, but the $3,432 settle was good enough for a new all-time weekly high.
• Finally, bitcoin wobbled, trading near $105,000 by Saturday.
Weekly Calendar Look Ahead
We’ll pack in a bunch of key macro data this week before the stock and bond market holiday on Thursday. May data has been on target so far—the nonfarm payrolls report was fine, while CPI and PPI were tame. Eyes now turn to Retail Sales, which prints on Tuesday. Then it’s all about the Fed on Wednesday. Let’s dig in.
Monday is light, so the focus will be on developments in the Middle East.
• The only notable economic news comes from the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index; the regional PMI survey has been negative for three months running. The 8:30 a.m. ET report shouldn’t move markets much, but its internals, such as employment and selling prices, will be interesting to peek at.
• Treasury bill auctions are held later in the morning, with the 20-year Treasury auction occurring in the afternoon. Recall last time around that weak demand for the 20-year Treasury, an orphaned part of the curve stoked another leg of the so-called “sell America” trade. We think that’s unlikely to happen again, considering healthy bidding at recent 10- and 30-year Treasury auctions.
• Other happenings include Amazon (AMZN) hosting its AWS re: Inforce conference in Philadelphia, the Paris Air Show, featuring aerospace firms, and earnings from homebuilder Lennar (LEN).
Tuesday is all about Retail Sales, and expectations are not high.
• The consensus calls for a 0.5% decline in May spending with a 0.1% dip in the core control group, which feeds most directly into GDP. Ex autos and retail sales likely ticked up, but only slightly. A weak dataset would back up light CPI figures—when a macro slowdown transpires, it’s common to see both consumption and prices ease or even fall.
• Despite strong household spending around Memorial Day, we expect a downshift, which would support the cause for a Fed rate cut before long. Of course, a still-decent labor market should prevent a significant spending drop.
• Also hitting the tape in the premarket will be May import/export price data—another inflation gauge. Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, and ManufacturingProduction are cyclical reports that are likely to be tepid at best for the last month. Then, at 10 a.m. ET, Business Inventories for April, and the NAHB Housing Market Index for June hit, but those won’t be major volatility catalysts.
Wednesday is Fed Day.
• There won’t be any change in the policy rate, but the June FOMC gathering means macro-onlookers will get a fresh Summary of Economic Projections (SEP). We anticipate that voting members’ dot plots will show slightly softer GDP growth, with a slight upward nudge in inflation estimates.
• While the term 'stagflation' may appear in financial media, we believe it's important to focus on the underlying economic data and long-term trends. The Federal Reserve's economic projections are subject to change and have historically been revised as new data becomes available.
• Mechanically, FOMC members have already submitted their projections, although they may tweak them in light of recent geopolitical turmoil. Regardless, what Powell says in the press conference may move markets more than what’s on paper.
• The Fed chief will be peppered with questions on the gradual weakening of the labor market and the prospects for a “shadow” Fed chair emerging well before Powell’s term is up next May.
• Before the Fed decision is released at 2 p.m. ET, Initial Claims prints before the bell—this one will be important to slice and dice since Continuing Claims soared to its highest mark since late 2021 last week, and the four-week moving average of Initial Claims has ticked to the loftiest mark since August 2023. A number above 250,000 on initial and two million on continuing would stir up recession chatter and pull forward Fed rate cut odds.
Thursday is a holiday. Friday’s data slate is light with just The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) and the Philly Fed survey. It is a triple-witching session, though, so there could be added volatility in the final 15 minutes of trading. Things could get wonky in WTI, too, as July crude oil futures expire.
Fiscal Policy Framework
Middle East tensions took the media’s focus off of the One Big, Beautiful Bill (OBBB), but President Trump’s July 4 deadline (more of an optimistic target) is closer into view. The Senate may look to tweak some parts of the legislation, but it’s increasingly likely that changes won’t be ‘big.’
Republican Senators are racing to finalize their version of the reconciliation package before Congress goes on recess for Independence Day, and their focus is on deeper spending cuts. We think the OBBB will reach Trump’s desk before the August recess. So, there’s still time to dissect what will be in the bill.
This week is also key on Capitol Hill because the GENIUS Act is likely to be approved by the Senate. We haven’t touched on this one yet, but it would establish a regulatory framework for stablecoins, potentially creating more demand for Treasuries (akin to what we described earlier surrounding the Walmart/Amazon stablecoin news).
As for the Israel-Iran situation, it remains to be seen if the US will be drawn in. Recall that President Trump ventured on a very successful Middle East trip last month in which major tech deals were agreed to. Trump wants peace in that volatile region but has also voiced clear support for Israel. It may be the perfect opportunity for the art of the deal to play out on the geopolitical stage.
Quick Hits
• According to the Fed’s model of the US economy, a sustained $10 increase in oil prices is expected to increase inflation by 0.4% and lower GDP by 0.4%...
• While the U.S. has increased its energy independence, a sustained increase in oil prices could still present headwinds for economic growth and inflation.
• Approximately 20% of the world’s oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, but it’s unlikely that Iran currently has the capacity or the incentive to block it.
• The Israeli attacks took out key nuclear facilities and Iranian military officials, but its oil reserves were largely unscathed—the energy market’s focus is on if the conflict escalates or spreads.
• Baker Hughes rig count: Drilling rigs slid for a seventh straight week to the lowest since 2021.
• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index jumped but remains deeply politically tainted. NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations ticked lower, also an encouraging sign ‘soft’ data point.
• China’s PPI change was -3.3% in May, the weakest since July 2023, and a significant deflationary macro force
This material is for informational purposes only and is not intended as investment, tax, or legal advice. Please consult your financial, tax, and legal advisors for advice specific to your personal circumstances.
The opinions expressed herein are those of Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") as of the date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Allio does not assume any obligation to update the information.
Investing in the financial markets involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.
The information and data contained in this communication are from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy and completeness are not guaranteed. Allio is not responsible for any errors or omissions or for the results obtained from the use of this information.
This material may contain “forward-looking statements” which are not purely historical in nature. Such statements may include, among other things, projections, forecasts, and estimates of yields or returns. Any forward-looking statements are based upon certain assumptions, beliefs, and expectations that may not be correct or materialize. There is no guarantee that any of the events anticipated will occur or that any of the forecasts will be achieved.
References to specific securities, asset classes, and financial markets are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell any security. You cannot invest directly in an index.
Allio Advisors LLC is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Allio, including our advisory services and fees, can be found in our Form CRS and Form ADV Part 2, which are available upon request.
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PMIs, May jobs report, Fed and ECB decisions, factory orders, trade balance, vehicle sales, jobless claims, productivity, and major earnings releases.
Disclosures
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. You should consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before engaging in any transaction. Information, including hypothetical projections of finances, may not take into account taxes, commissions, or other factors which may significantly affect potential outcomes. This material should not be considered an offer or recommendation to buy or sell a security. While information and sources are believed to be accurate, Allio Capital does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information or source provided herein and is under no obligation to update this information.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Performance could be volatile; an investment in a fund or an account may lose money.
There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.
This advertisement is provided by Allio Capital for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and objectives, considering the risks and uncertainties associated with investing.
The views and forecasts expressed are those of Allio Capital and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market volatility, economic conditions, and changes in government policy may impact the accuracy of these forecasts and the performance of any investment.
Allio Capital utilizes proprietary technologies and methodologies, but no investment strategy can guarantee returns or eliminate risk. Investors should carefully consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances before investing.
For more detailed information about our strategies and associated risks, please refer to the full disclosures available on our website or contact an Allio Capital advisor.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Disclosures
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. You should consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before engaging in any transaction. Information, including hypothetical projections of finances, may not take into account taxes, commissions, or other factors which may significantly affect potential outcomes. This material should not be considered an offer or recommendation to buy or sell a security. While information and sources are believed to be accurate, Allio Capital does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information or source provided herein and is under no obligation to update this information.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Performance could be volatile; an investment in a fund or an account may lose money.
There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.
This advertisement is provided by Allio Capital for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and objectives, considering the risks and uncertainties associated with investing.
The views and forecasts expressed are those of Allio Capital and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market volatility, economic conditions, and changes in government policy may impact the accuracy of these forecasts and the performance of any investment.
Allio Capital utilizes proprietary technologies and methodologies, but no investment strategy can guarantee returns or eliminate risk. Investors should carefully consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances before investing.
For more detailed information about our strategies and associated risks, please refer to the full disclosures available on our website or contact an Allio Capital advisor.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
Disclosures
This material is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial, legal, or tax advice. You should consult your own financial, legal, and tax advisors before engaging in any transaction. Information, including hypothetical projections of finances, may not take into account taxes, commissions, or other factors which may significantly affect potential outcomes. This material should not be considered an offer or recommendation to buy or sell a security. While information and sources are believed to be accurate, Allio Capital does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of any information or source provided herein and is under no obligation to update this information.
Past performance is not a guarantee or a reliable indicator of future results. All investments contain risk and may lose value. Performance could be volatile; an investment in a fund or an account may lose money.
There is no guarantee that these investment strategies will work under all market conditions or are appropriate for all investors and each investor should evaluate their ability to invest long-term, especially during periods of downturn in the market.
This advertisement is provided by Allio Capital for informational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice, a recommendation, or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities. Investment decisions should be based on your specific financial situation and objectives, considering the risks and uncertainties associated with investing.
The views and forecasts expressed are those of Allio Capital and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investing involves risk, including the possible loss of principal. Market volatility, economic conditions, and changes in government policy may impact the accuracy of these forecasts and the performance of any investment.
Allio Capital utilizes proprietary technologies and methodologies, but no investment strategy can guarantee returns or eliminate risk. Investors should carefully consider their investment goals, risk tolerance, and financial circumstances before investing.
For more detailed information about our strategies and associated risks, please refer to the full disclosures available on our website or contact an Allio Capital advisor.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
What We Do
What We Say
Who We Are
Legal
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025
What We Do
What We Say
Who We Are
Legal
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025
What We Do
What We Say
Who We Are
Legal
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025