Macro Economic Calendar: Week of June 9, 2025

The Setup & Where to Focus

Stocks rallied for a second straight week on trade-deal optimism and despite a sudden fallout between President Trump and Elon Musk. 

• The S&P 500 (SPX) rose 1.5% to close above the 6000 level for the first time since late February. The Nasdaq Composite outperformed, climbing 2.2%. Both it and the SPX are now 20% above their March closing lows, meeting the technical definition of a new bull market. Of course, the early 2025 highs are above current levels, so there’s still wood to chop from that perspective.

The Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) fell hard as geopolitical developments shook out and in the wake of the May jobs report released last Friday. 

• Wall Street’s so-called fear gauge closed the week below 17 for the first time since stocks tallied their all-time highs on February 19. With a new batch of employment data in hand and inflation reports due out this week, there are plenty of macro clues to sort through, but implied volatility readings suggest quiet summertime trading action could be in store.

Digging into the sectors, tech was best in show. The Information Technology ETF (XLK) rose 3.2% last week thanks to bullish activity in the chip space. 

• Shares of NVIDIA (NVDA) rallied 5%, while small semiconductor stocks, such as Micron (MU) and AMD (AMD), advanced. The other two members of the tech triumvirate, Microsoft (MSFT) and Apple (AAPL), climbed about in line with the broader market, though Palantir’s (PLTR) momentum lost some steam as the government-dependent AI-centered large cap dropped 3%.

Communication Services (XLC) was also in rally mode. Meta Platforms (META) soared 8%, and shares of Mark Zuckerberg’s company may have eyes on their all-time highs from earlier this year. 

• Indeed, the Mag 7 stocks rocked a halo last week, but one beleaguered sector finally caught a bid—Energy (XLE). 

• The oil and gas space rose 2.3%; its first up week in three. WTI crude oil lifted above technical resistance just as domestic drillers pare their production activities. Heading into the peak of the summer driving demand season, gasoline futures are very cheap by historical standards. 

• We are also coming up on the third anniversary of the Biden-era all-time high in pump prices, which was $5.016 per gallon on June 14, 2022. We don’t talk about them much, but mid-sized players like EOG Resources (EOG), Diamondback Energy (FANG), and the Buffett-loved Occidental Petroleum (OXY) were each up 4% or more. The large integrateds—ExxonMobil (XOM) and Chevron (CVX)—rose as much as the S&P 500.

Soft last week were consumer stocks and the Utilities sector. 

• Tesla’s (TSLA) 15% plunge hurt the Consumer Discretionary ETF (XLY) despite a 4%+ gain in Amazon (AMZN) shares. McDonald’s (MCD) and the US automakers also stumbled. Consumer Staples (XLP) lost ground as money shifted away from defensives and into growth and cyclicals. Blame Costco (COST) as its May comp-store sales were below expectations after a solid Q1 report issued the previous week. 

• As for Utilities (XLU), the macro was the story given the sharp rise in interest rates—higher borrowing costs generally weigh on debt-heavy power generation firms. Still, there were pockets of green, including a 2% ascent in NextEra Energy (NEE), the biggest US utility stock, and among the AI-related nuclear stocks, like Vistra (VST) and NRG Energy (NRG). Interestingly, after soaring in the wake of a nuclear power deal with Meta, Constellation Energy (CEG) sold off sharply and ended the week in the red.

There was indeed a lot of moving and shaking under the market’s surface, and small and mid-cap stocks were in bull-market mode, too. 

• The S&P MidCap 400 ETF (MDY) gained 1.8%, and the Russell 2000 ETF (IWM) outperformed with a 3.3% add. This was important price action because interest rates jumped—the prevailing narrative has been that if Treasury yields increase, then that’s bad news for smaller, more debt-dependent areas, primarily Russell 2000 equities. This price action was notable because it ran counter to the prevailing narrative, and in a bullish way. 

• Economic optimism is the only reason IWM beat mid-caps and the S&P 500, with the 10-year Treasury rate lifting 10 basis points. Friday’s jobs report was a case in point. The better-than-expected headline number, along with solid wage gains for May, helped IWM boost stocks as they closed out a strong week; the 10-year yield rose 19 basis points from Thursday’s low to the Friday settle. Moreover, domestic SMID-caps benefited from steep climbs in both the S&P Retail ETF (XRT) and the S&P Biotech ETF (XBI)--when those areas surge, it’s often a positive sign for the macro economy.

Turning to overseas markets, decent European data helped support the three bourses (Germany, the UK, and France), but the real action was further east. 

• China (FXI) tacked on 4.5% as it, too, homes in on fresh multi-year highs. Positive trade talk developments between President Trump and President Xi, including a reported call that took place last Thursday, cooled tensions. Trump also confirmed that Xi agreed to allow rare earth minerals to flow to the US. 

• The two world leaders are reportedly set to meet in person soon, at least according to Trump’s Truth Social account. All of this came before a 2:17 a.m. ET Thursday social media post from the US president, in all caps, writing about Xi that he is “VERY TOUGH, AND EXTREMELY HARD TO MAKE A DEAL WITH!!!” 

• The US and China were set to hold trade discussions on Monday this week in London. Treasury Secretary Bessent, Commerce Secretary Lutnick, and Trade Representative Greer meet with China’s foreign ministry.

Price is often truth, and investors took all the Trump-Xi jostling in stride. 

• The broad Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) outperformed the S&P 500, rising 3.1%. The aforementioned rally in chip stocks translated into big gains for the South Korea ETF (EWY), too. Despite supply chain issues and following key elections within the nation Tuesday last week, the South Korea ETF (EWY) was the best among 45 country ETFs Allio tracks, tacking on 8%. In all, more fresh highs among international ETFs aided the All-Country World Index (ACWI) to close the week at a new all-time peak.

Over in the bond market, Treasuries were under selling pressure. 

• We called out the move in the 10-year earlier, and a solid May jobs report helped to underpin the notion that a US recession has not come yet. But the employment situation is not all roses—though the headline payrolls number beat estimates, the gains came from non-cyclical sectors such as healthcare and education. Furthermore, 95,000 jobs were stripped from the March and April reports—those negative revisions proved that labor market momentum is not all that high. And the household survey, used to determine the unemployment rate, suggested a contraction in employment and the labor force. 

• Still, the economy has produced between 102,000 and 147,000 jobs per month since January, per the more widely-watched and regarded establishment survey, while the unemployment rate has risen each month from February through May. Once again, we can learn a lot from seeing how traders suss it all out, and yields backing up with stocks hitting new highs points to optimism about the macro. Narrowing corporate credit spreads can only be interpreted as a boon, too.

Wrapping things up with a glance at commodities, gold (GLD) rose 0.5%, but the real metal action came elsewhere. 

• Silver (SLV) soared 9%, its best week since September 2024. The slightly more industrial precious metal finally played catch-up with the yellow metal—the gold-to-silver ratio had climbed to historically extreme levels. Copper was on board with the pro-growth narrative as well; the economic bellwether sniffed $5 per pound at the week’s high. 

• Oil and natural gas were also on the rise, just as domestic drillers shutter rigs. WTI surged 6.6% for its best week since last October, while Henry Hub natural gas tacked on 10%. 

• It felt like a commodities all-skate, and the upside action came as the US Dollar Index (DXY) merely wobbled. Bitcoin (IBIT) was notably quiet—down fractionally week-over-week as of Saturday.

Weekly Calendar Look Ahead

After a busy week of employment data, including a soft ADP Private Payrolls report, weak ISM Services Employment, steady Challenger Job Cuts, higher Initial Jobless Claims, and a mixed but encouraging May NFP report, macro eyes now turn to the inflation situation. We’ll get the New York Fed Consumer Inflation Expectations survey on Monday, the NFIB Business Optimism Index on Tuesday, CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday, and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey on Friday.

The week kicks off with macro data of moderate importance. 

• Wholesale Inventories for April hit at 10 a.m. ET before the May NY Fed Consumer Inflation Expectation survey at the top of the following hour. This report has become much more respected than UMich, so stocks and bonds could move if we see a surprise uptick in the inflation outlook. 

• Tariffs have yet to make their way into end products to a large extent, so we aren’t anticipating fireworks with this one. A steep stock market recovery since April will almost certainly lift consumers’ collective outlooks on the economy. 

• Treasury bill auctions come later in the morning, and without any Fed speak this week, such auctions will carry additional weight. 

• We’ll also get macro pulse checks in terms of risk appetite from the Chime (CHYM) and Voyager Technologies (VOYG) IPOs. Recall that IPO FOMO is back after massive early gains in CoreWeave (CRWV) and Circle (CRCL). Apple (AAPL) hosts its WWDC event in Cupertino, California, and JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon speaks at the Data + AI Summit 2025 in San Francisco.

Tuesday’s data deck is light—the NFIB Business Optimism Index prints before sunrise, and we’ll get the weekly Johnson Redbook Retail Sales report before the bell. 

• Treasury auctions and oil inventory data come in the afternoon. The NFIB focuses on small companies, and it leans Republican—with a macro rebound since Liberation Day, our team expects improvement across sentiment gauges, though business owners will likely have voiced inflation worries. 

• The Redbook, meanwhile, continues to point to solid consumer spending.

CPI is the week’s headliner. We’ll get that at 8:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. 

• The consensus calls for a 0.2% monthly rise in headline CPI, while the core rate is seen increasing by 0.3%. That would bring the year-on-year figures to 2.5% and 2.9%, respectively. The Kalshi prediction market shows a decline in the trend of headline CPI from 2.5% a month ago to 2.4% for the May update as of today. 

• So, a dovish downside miss could happen. If so, the bond market should claw back some of last week’s losses. It would take a shocker set of numbers to prompt the Fed to move, though. As it stands, no rate cuts are priced in until October, and just 39 basis points of easing is expected through year-end. 

• Aside from CPI, the weekly MBA mortgage market hits before the bell, and the EIA’s oil inventory data comes later in the morning. Treasury auctions and the Treasury’s monthly budget statement are other macro bond market volatility catalysts.

PPI comes on Thursday. This wholesale look feeds more into the PCE Price Index—the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge. 

• A 0.2% rise in headline PPI is predicted, with the core rate increasing by 0.3%. That would bring the annual figures to 2.6% and 3.0%, respectively. Recall that last time, both CPI and PPI were tame, with the latter being outright deflationary. More cool numbers would be welcome news as tariff fears remain in the back of investors’ minds. 

• Initial Jobless Claims hits at the same time as PPI, and this will be one to watch. Last week’s 247,000 tally was above forecasts, and another weak of elevated jobless claims would stoke growth fears. The good news was that Continuing Claims ticked down slightly for the previous week. 

• Treasury bond auctions, including one for the 30-year, are held midday. 

Friday the 13th brings a first look at June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment. 

• The final May print revealed slightly softer inflation expectations, and we’ll likely see comparable percentages this go around. Regardless of the findings, stocks and bonds have rightly learned to ignore the politically biased UMich report.

Fiscal Policy Framework

All good things must come to an end. “I hate my X,” the New York Post dubbed the Trump/Musk spat, and the public watched the drama play out on Trump’s Truth Social and Musk’s X last Thursday afternoon. Now, this reeks more of drama rather than macro substance, but tensions between the world’s most powerful man and the world’s richest man may turn out to be key for US fiscal matters. Specifically, the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is currently being vetted and tweaked by the Senate, and if Musk sways just a few voters, then the tax and spending package could be in jeopardy. 

We believe the stakes are just too high for Senate Republicans to side with Musk. The $4 trillion bill, while including hefty spending provisions that trouble hard-lined fiscal conservatives, will be approved in some form or another, likely no later than August. Whether the bill reaches the Resolute Desk by Independence Day doesn’t really matter, as the tax cuts will ensure no hikes occur come January 1, 2026. The Trump/Musk riff may, however, result in fewer breaks for Tesla and SpaceX, so Musk may do well to warm up to the POTUS.

Meanwhile, developments between the US and China on the trade front are becoming increasingly important and urgent. The looming expiration of a 90-day pause of steep reciprocal tariffs (July 9) should mean a flurry of trade deals over the next four weeks. 

Risks & Opportunities

Indeed, the closer we get to the tariff-pause x-date, the greater the risk of volatility across markets. Investors obviously want to see deals hammered out, primarily those that reduce global duty rates. It’s all about expectations, though, and the baseline assumption is that there will be a 10% tariff rate on all countries and a 30% levy on goods imported from China. If numbers come in below that, we expect the stock market rally to continue. But if sand gets into the trade-talk gears, then stocks would likely give back some of their 20%-plus gains since the April 8 closing low. 

Dynamics in the bond market are more nuanced. Higher tariff rates would stymie GDP growth, so that should put downward pressure on interest rates. The curveball is that higher duties on goods would increase CPI in what could be a short-lived stagflationary scenario. It’s a troubling thought, for sure, but Trump’s penchant for dealmaking will likely come through once again, and the overall risk is probably not that high. Instead, the focus should be on other fundamentals, such as consumer spending and corporate profits—both of which remain sanguine. Indeed, Kalshi shows that the implied chance of a US recession this year has plunged from 70% at the start of May to just 26% today.

In the here and now, there’s a solid chance that interest rates pull back this week after the steep ascent last week. That assertion hinges on cool inflation readings over the next handful of sessions. Of course, Treasury rates have proven to be sensitive to changes in global yields, so macro events in Japan and the Euro Area will be key to how the domestic bond market performs as we approach the end of 2025’s first half.

Quick Hits

• Workers continue to enjoy wage gains significantly above the inflation rate (3.9% YoY per the May jobs report, while PCE inflation is just 2.1%).

• The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index fell 1.4% MoM in May. It is up 4% YoY.

• The Kalshi 2025 inflation market shows a 3.1% YoY CPI rate by December, sharply below prevailing consumer expectations.

• Investors remain skeptical of the rally, as evidenced by a rise in the percentage of net bears in last week’s AAII survey.

• Cash holdings are increasing: Money market assets as a percentage of total assets have been on the rise for almost a year. It's still not high vs history at 18%.

• Contrarian indicator? The Barron’s magazine cover calls on investors to “start worrying” now that the S&P 500 has reclaimed 6000.

• The US Dollar Index dropped to near its weakest mark since July 2023 last week.

• The Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index fell to near its lowest level since February last week despite lingering trade-war fears.