The
MacroEconomic Calendar
The
MacroEconomic Calendar
Sep 2, 2025
Allio Capital Team
Week of September 2, 2025
Week of September 2, 2025
The Setup & Where to Focus
Markets wrapped up August on a high note after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled at Jackson Hole that the balance of risks may warrant rate cuts as early as September. That dovish tone unleashed a powerful rally across equities, lifting the S&P 500 to record highs and sending small caps surging, while bond yields plunged and the U.S. dollar weakened. Volatility dropped to its lowest level since 2024, underscoring a decrease in investor anxiety.
The week ahead shifts the spotlight to a dense slate of economic data capped by Friday’s all-important Employment Situation report. With markets already pricing in a roughly 80% probability of a September rate cut, each data point on growth, labor, and inflation will either reinforce or challenge the case for easing. Expect investors to weigh the ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, and payrolls data as the deciding signals heading into the Fed’s September meeting.
Recap: What Happened Last Week
Equities ended August with broad gains, though leadership rotated beneath the surface. The S&P 500 finished just shy of an all-time high, while small mid-cap stocks surged in one of their strongest weeks in years. Rate-sensitive areas, such as real estate and financials, rallied as yields fell, with regional banks enjoying their best close of 2025. By contrast, big tech lagged; Nvidia delivered record earnings but issued cautious sales guidance, prompting volatility across the semiconductor space.
In bonds, the yield on the 2-year Treasury plunged below 3.7% immediately after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, while the 10-year yield eased modestly, steepening the curve to 55 basis points. Credit spreads remained tight, reflecting investor confidence in corporate balance sheets despite macro uncertainty.
Commodities offered a mixed picture: WTI crude remained in the mid-$60s, natural gas dropped to multi-month lows, and gold advanced 1%, alongside a 2.4% gain in silver. Bitcoin wobbled but held above $110K, while ether soared to record highs near $5,000.
The key takeaway from last week: Powell’s dovish pivot dominated price action, and the stage is now set for incoming data to either cement or challenge the easing narrative.
The Look Ahead
Monday, September 1 – Labor Day
U.S. markets closed. Liquidity may remain thin into Tuesday’s session.
Tuesday, September 2 – Manufacturing Signals
ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM) – The headline release of the day. Markets will focus on New Orders, Prices Paid, and Employment. Strong prints would complicate the Fed’s dovish tilt, while weakness would reinforce the easing case.
LMI Logistics Managers Index (6:00 AM) – Supply chain insights; less market-moving but useful for context.
Redbook Same-Store Sales (8:55 AM) – A high-frequency read on retail activity.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM) – Flash surveys provide color but carry less weight than ISM.
Wednesday, September 3 – Labor Market Preview
JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM) – A key gauge of labor demand. High openings could stoke concerns about wage pressure, while softening demand would support the Fed’s pivot.
Fed’s Musalem Speech (time TBD) – Could add policy nuance after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Factory Orders (time TBD) – A backward-looking measure of manufacturing demand; unlikely to shift markets unless results diverge sharply from forecasts.
Thursday, September 4 – Services, Labor, and Trade
ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM) – With services representing ~70% of U.S. GDP, this is the most essential release of the day. Watch Employment and Prices Paid for inflation and hiring clues.
ADP Employment Change (8:15 AM) – A private-sector read on payrolls, often volatile but directionally useful ahead of Friday.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – Weekly claims remain a timely barometer of labor market health.
Balance of Trade (8:30 AM) – Provides context on exports/imports; generally secondary for markets unless there’s a surprise swing.
Friday, September 5 – The Big One: Employment Situation (8:30 AM)
Nonfarm Payrolls – The market-moving headline number.
Unemployment Rate – Confirms or counters the NFP trend.
Participation Rate – Crucial for Understanding Labor Supply Dynamics.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY & MoM) – Direct feed into inflation expectations.
This report is the crown jewel of the week. Markets will react not just to one number but to the entire labor picture.
Weekly Importance Ranking:
Friday: Employment Situation
Thursday: ISM Services PMI
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings
Fiscal Policy Framework
Political risk continues to intersect with macro developments. President Trump’s recent dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised fresh concerns over central bank independence. An open Fed seat would allow the administration to install a more dovish policymaker, potentially accelerating the pace of cuts. Meanwhile, the administration confirmed a 10% equity stake in Intel, underscoring Washington’s interventionist stance in strategic industries, such as semiconductors and rare earths. Trade policy also remains fluid, with Canada lifting retaliatory tariffs and new U.S. tariffs announced on imported furniture.
Risks & Opportunities
Risks: A hotter-than-expected payrolls report could delay rate cuts, potentially reigniting volatility after the recent decline in the VIX. Global political risks remain elevated, particularly in Europe, where sentiment surveys indicate a weakening of confidence.
Opportunities: Small-cap and rate-sensitive sectors are likely to benefit the most from falling yields. Silver continues to offer relative value compared to gold, while bonds provide attractive entry points amid steepening yield curves.
Quick Hits
Market-implied odds of a September Fed rate cut: ~80%.
VIX dropped below 15, its lowest level since December 2024.
Flows into money market funds continue to outpace equity inflows, with nearly $1 trillion added in the past year.
The S&P 500 notched its best Jackson Hole-week rally since 2010.
Russell 2000 posted its most substantial daily gain since June 2020.
The Takeaway
August ended with a dovish Powell-fueled rally, but September begins with a gauntlet of economic data that will test the market’s optimism. The ISM surveys will set the tone early in the week, JOLTS will frame labor dynamics midweek, and Friday’s jobs report will decide whether the Fed follows through with cuts. Investors should brace for volatility, particularly in the lead-up to the payrolls release, as markets weigh whether the Fed’s pivot was preemptive or prescient.
The Setup & Where to Focus
Markets wrapped up August on a high note after Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled at Jackson Hole that the balance of risks may warrant rate cuts as early as September. That dovish tone unleashed a powerful rally across equities, lifting the S&P 500 to record highs and sending small caps surging, while bond yields plunged and the U.S. dollar weakened. Volatility dropped to its lowest level since 2024, underscoring a decrease in investor anxiety.
The week ahead shifts the spotlight to a dense slate of economic data capped by Friday’s all-important Employment Situation report. With markets already pricing in a roughly 80% probability of a September rate cut, each data point on growth, labor, and inflation will either reinforce or challenge the case for easing. Expect investors to weigh the ISM surveys, JOLTS job openings, and payrolls data as the deciding signals heading into the Fed’s September meeting.
Recap: What Happened Last Week
Equities ended August with broad gains, though leadership rotated beneath the surface. The S&P 500 finished just shy of an all-time high, while small mid-cap stocks surged in one of their strongest weeks in years. Rate-sensitive areas, such as real estate and financials, rallied as yields fell, with regional banks enjoying their best close of 2025. By contrast, big tech lagged; Nvidia delivered record earnings but issued cautious sales guidance, prompting volatility across the semiconductor space.
In bonds, the yield on the 2-year Treasury plunged below 3.7% immediately after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks, while the 10-year yield eased modestly, steepening the curve to 55 basis points. Credit spreads remained tight, reflecting investor confidence in corporate balance sheets despite macro uncertainty.
Commodities offered a mixed picture: WTI crude remained in the mid-$60s, natural gas dropped to multi-month lows, and gold advanced 1%, alongside a 2.4% gain in silver. Bitcoin wobbled but held above $110K, while ether soared to record highs near $5,000.
The key takeaway from last week: Powell’s dovish pivot dominated price action, and the stage is now set for incoming data to either cement or challenge the easing narrative.
The Look Ahead
Monday, September 1 – Labor Day
U.S. markets closed. Liquidity may remain thin into Tuesday’s session.
Tuesday, September 2 – Manufacturing Signals
ISM Manufacturing PMI (10:00 AM) – The headline release of the day. Markets will focus on New Orders, Prices Paid, and Employment. Strong prints would complicate the Fed’s dovish tilt, while weakness would reinforce the easing case.
LMI Logistics Managers Index (6:00 AM) – Supply chain insights; less market-moving but useful for context.
Redbook Same-Store Sales (8:55 AM) – A high-frequency read on retail activity.
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (9:45 AM) – Flash surveys provide color but carry less weight than ISM.
Wednesday, September 3 – Labor Market Preview
JOLTS Job Openings (10:00 AM) – A key gauge of labor demand. High openings could stoke concerns about wage pressure, while softening demand would support the Fed’s pivot.
Fed’s Musalem Speech (time TBD) – Could add policy nuance after Powell’s Jackson Hole remarks.
Factory Orders (time TBD) – A backward-looking measure of manufacturing demand; unlikely to shift markets unless results diverge sharply from forecasts.
Thursday, September 4 – Services, Labor, and Trade
ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM) – With services representing ~70% of U.S. GDP, this is the most essential release of the day. Watch Employment and Prices Paid for inflation and hiring clues.
ADP Employment Change (8:15 AM) – A private-sector read on payrolls, often volatile but directionally useful ahead of Friday.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30 AM) – Weekly claims remain a timely barometer of labor market health.
Balance of Trade (8:30 AM) – Provides context on exports/imports; generally secondary for markets unless there’s a surprise swing.
Friday, September 5 – The Big One: Employment Situation (8:30 AM)
Nonfarm Payrolls – The market-moving headline number.
Unemployment Rate – Confirms or counters the NFP trend.
Participation Rate – Crucial for Understanding Labor Supply Dynamics.
Average Hourly Earnings (YoY & MoM) – Direct feed into inflation expectations.
This report is the crown jewel of the week. Markets will react not just to one number but to the entire labor picture.
Weekly Importance Ranking:
Friday: Employment Situation
Thursday: ISM Services PMI
Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI
Wednesday: JOLTS Job Openings
Fiscal Policy Framework
Political risk continues to intersect with macro developments. President Trump’s recent dismissal of Fed Governor Lisa Cook raised fresh concerns over central bank independence. An open Fed seat would allow the administration to install a more dovish policymaker, potentially accelerating the pace of cuts. Meanwhile, the administration confirmed a 10% equity stake in Intel, underscoring Washington’s interventionist stance in strategic industries, such as semiconductors and rare earths. Trade policy also remains fluid, with Canada lifting retaliatory tariffs and new U.S. tariffs announced on imported furniture.
Risks & Opportunities
Risks: A hotter-than-expected payrolls report could delay rate cuts, potentially reigniting volatility after the recent decline in the VIX. Global political risks remain elevated, particularly in Europe, where sentiment surveys indicate a weakening of confidence.
Opportunities: Small-cap and rate-sensitive sectors are likely to benefit the most from falling yields. Silver continues to offer relative value compared to gold, while bonds provide attractive entry points amid steepening yield curves.
Quick Hits
Market-implied odds of a September Fed rate cut: ~80%.
VIX dropped below 15, its lowest level since December 2024.
Flows into money market funds continue to outpace equity inflows, with nearly $1 trillion added in the past year.
The S&P 500 notched its best Jackson Hole-week rally since 2010.
Russell 2000 posted its most substantial daily gain since June 2020.
The Takeaway
August ended with a dovish Powell-fueled rally, but September begins with a gauntlet of economic data that will test the market’s optimism. The ISM surveys will set the tone early in the week, JOLTS will frame labor dynamics midweek, and Friday’s jobs report will decide whether the Fed follows through with cuts. Investors should brace for volatility, particularly in the lead-up to the payrolls release, as markets weigh whether the Fed’s pivot was preemptive or prescient.
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The articles and customer support materials available on this property by Allio are educational only and not investment or tax advice.
If not otherwise specified above, this page contains original content by Allio Advisors LLC. This content is for general informational purposes only.
The information provided should be used at your own risk.
The original content provided here by Allio should not be construed as personal financial planning, tax, or financial advice. Whether an article, FAQ, customer support collateral, or interactive calculator, all original content by Allio is only for general informational purposes.
While we do our utmost to present fair, accurate reporting and analysis, Allio offers no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the published articles. Please pay attention to the original publication date and last updated date of each article. Allio offers no guarantee that it will update its articles after the date they were posted with subsequent developments of any kind, including, but not limited to, any subsequent changes in the relevant laws and regulations.
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For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
For content related to taxes, you should know that you should not rely on the information as tax advice. Articles or FAQs do not constitute a tax opinion and are not intended or written to be used, nor can they be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer.
The articles and customer support materials available on this property by Allio are educational only and not investment or tax advice.
If not otherwise specified above, this page contains original content by Allio Advisors LLC. This content is for general informational purposes only.
The information provided should be used at your own risk.
The original content provided here by Allio should not be construed as personal financial planning, tax, or financial advice. Whether an article, FAQ, customer support collateral, or interactive calculator, all original content by Allio is only for general informational purposes.
While we do our utmost to present fair, accurate reporting and analysis, Allio offers no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the published articles. Please pay attention to the original publication date and last updated date of each article. Allio offers no guarantee that it will update its articles after the date they were posted with subsequent developments of any kind, including, but not limited to, any subsequent changes in the relevant laws and regulations.
Any links provided to other websites are offered as a matter of convenience and are not intended to imply that Allio or its writers endorse, sponsor, promote, and/or are affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorses any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated otherwise.
Allio may publish content that has been created by affiliated or unaffiliated contributors, who may include employees, other financial advisors, third-party authors who are paid a fee by Allio, or other parties. Unless otherwise noted, the content of such posts does not necessarily represent the actual views or opinions of Allio or any of its officers, directors, or employees. The opinions expressed by guest writers and/or article sources/interviewees are strictly their own and do not necessarily represent those of Allio.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
For content related to taxes, you should know that you should not rely on the information as tax advice. Articles or FAQs do not constitute a tax opinion and are not intended or written to be used, nor can they be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer.
The articles and customer support materials available on this property by Allio are educational only and not investment or tax advice.
If not otherwise specified above, this page contains original content by Allio Advisors LLC. This content is for general informational purposes only.
The information provided should be used at your own risk.
The original content provided here by Allio should not be construed as personal financial planning, tax, or financial advice. Whether an article, FAQ, customer support collateral, or interactive calculator, all original content by Allio is only for general informational purposes.
While we do our utmost to present fair, accurate reporting and analysis, Allio offers no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the published articles. Please pay attention to the original publication date and last updated date of each article. Allio offers no guarantee that it will update its articles after the date they were posted with subsequent developments of any kind, including, but not limited to, any subsequent changes in the relevant laws and regulations.
Any links provided to other websites are offered as a matter of convenience and are not intended to imply that Allio or its writers endorse, sponsor, promote, and/or are affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorses any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated otherwise.
Allio may publish content that has been created by affiliated or unaffiliated contributors, who may include employees, other financial advisors, third-party authors who are paid a fee by Allio, or other parties. Unless otherwise noted, the content of such posts does not necessarily represent the actual views or opinions of Allio or any of its officers, directors, or employees. The opinions expressed by guest writers and/or article sources/interviewees are strictly their own and do not necessarily represent those of Allio.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
For content related to taxes, you should know that you should not rely on the information as tax advice. Articles or FAQs do not constitute a tax opinion and are not intended or written to be used, nor can they be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer.
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Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
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Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
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What We Do
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Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
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Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025