The
MacroEconomic Calendar
The
MacroEconomic Calendar
Sep 22, 2025
Allio Capital Team
Week of September 22, 2025
Week of September 22, 2025
The Setup & Where to Focus
Markets head into the week of September 22 with a delicate mix of easing policy, improving rate-sensitive activity, and still-uneven growth signals. Last week’s first 25-bp cut set the tone: lower mortgage rates jump-started applications and refinances, while consumption remained steady. At the same time, leading indicators slipped and regional factories diverged, keeping the soft-landing debate very much alive.
This coming week offers a high-resolution look at the economy from several angles. On Tuesday, S&P Global’s flash PMIs provide the earliest read on September’s activity, particularly the new orders vs. prices spread that markets use as a demand “nowcast.” Wednesday’s New Home Sales will test how far lower mortgage rates can pull potential buyers off the sidelines. Thursday brings the final Q2 GDP suite alongside Durable Goods Orders, claims, and inventory/trade data, critical for recalibrating growth and capex expectations into Q4. And on Friday, we get the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the week’s ultimate arbiter for the path of cuts.
The policy narrative stays center stage. A dense roster of Fed speakers culminates with Chair Powell on Tuesday, giving markets another chance to understand whether the Committee is preparing a measured cutting cycle or prefers a pause-and-assess cadence. A busy Treasury auction slate and the UN General Assembly add cross-currents that can influence the dollar, rates, and energy, just as investors reassess risk exposures into quarter-end.
Recap: What Happened Last Week
The macro mix remained “mixed but not broken.” On the factory front, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to −8.7 (first contraction since June) while Philly Fed surged to +23.2, the best since January. Taken together, the surveys argue for patchy regional momentum rather than a broad-based slowdown.
Consumers continue to do the heavy lifting. Retail Sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, led by autos and online categories, and Industrial Production edged up 0.1% month-over-month after July’s dip, enough to keep near-term GDP tracking in the positive column. Yet the Conference Board Leading Index fell −0.5% (six-month change −2.8%), consistent with a slower growth phase even as initial jobless claims at 231k signaled a labor market that’s cooling, not cracking.
Housing finally showed signs of responsiveness to policy. 30-year mortgage rates slid into the 6.2%–6.4% range, and MBA applications jumped +29.7% w/w (refis +58%), indicating that rate relief is transmitting quickly through the interest-rate channel. Builders, however, remain cautious as NAHB fell to 43, reflecting affordability and cost headwinds that won’t disappear overnight.
Energy data tightened the inflation narrative marginally. The weekly EIA report recorded a large crude draw (−9.3M bbl) with gasoline stocks down and distillates up, an autumnal pattern that can matter if demand holds. Markets took the week’s blend as constructively dovish: duration found sponsorship, rate-sensitives outperformed, and risk appetite improved—but investors remain tethered to the inflation trajectory and the speed of labor cooling to justify further easing.
The Look Ahead
Monday, September 15 – Consumer Check
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30): A composite of 85 indicators, CFNAI helps determine whether growth is above or below trend. Stability after the recent dip in leading indicators would support the soft-landing case; renewed weakness would underline slowing momentum.
Fed Speakers: Williams (9:45), Musalem (10:00), Barkin (12:00), Hammack (12:00). Markets will parse post-cut reaction function themes: how quickly cuts could proceed, how policy makers view neutral, and whether they see evidence of an imminent reacceleration.
3- & 6-Month Bill Auctions (11:30): A steady front-end bid reinforces smooth funding and keeps a lid on near-term volatility.
UN General Assembly (20:00): Geopolitical headlines can influence energy, FX, and term premium, especially if trade or supply themes surface.
Market focus: Does CFNAI echo “mixed but resilient,” or does it tilt toward below-trend growth?
Market focus: Does CFNAI echo “mixed but resilient,” or does it tilt toward below-trend growth?
Tuesday, September 16 – Labor Market Reset
S&P Global PMIs – Flash (9:45): With Manufacturing (prior 53.0), Services (prior 54.5), Composite (prior 55.1; latest tracking ~54.6), the new orders vs. prices spread is the single most important lead indicator for corporate earnings and margins. A firm spread supports risk appetite; a narrowing one flags softer demand or stickier input costs.
Current Account (8:30) & Redbook (8:55): External balances frame the dollar’s path; high-frequency retail adds texture to September spending.
Fed Chair Powell (12:35), plus Bowman (9:00) and Bostic (10:00): Tone on “measured cycle” vs. “one-and-pause” matters more than backward-looking data.
2-Year Note Auction (13:00): The front end is the purest read on policy expectations. A strong auction anchors 2s; a sloppy one can ripple out the curve.
Richmond Fed (10:00) & API Crude (16:30): Regional factory color and an energy preview for Wednesday.
Market focus: Powell’s language regarding labor risks versus service inflation, PMI new orders, and 2-year auction dynamics.
Wednesday, September 17 – Inflation Pipeline & Fiscal Watch
MBA Mortgage Report (7:00): After last week’s surge, watch purchase vs. refi mix and the 30-yr rate. Sustained improvement in purchases would imply real housing turnover, not just refinancing.
Building Permits – Final (8:00): Revisions from 1.362M to 1.312M matter for supply and the construction pipeline.
New Home Sales (10:00): Consensus is near 0.65M (prior 0.652M). New construction has been the relief valve for low existing inventory; softness would flag the limits of affordability even with lower rates.
EIA Petroleum Status (10:30): Following the outsized crude draw, attention will focus on Cushing stocks, product cracks, and imports/runs to assess whether tightness persists.
Auctions: 17-Week Bill (11:30); 5-Year Note and 2-Year FRN (13:00).
Fed Daly (16:10).
Market focus: Months’ supply and median prices in New Home Sales; whether EIA confirms continued tightening; 5-year auction tail/indirects for duration appetite.
Thursday, September 18 – The Big One: CPI Day
GDP – Final (8:30): The last look at Q2 growth. Markets will mine GDP sales (~6.8%), corporate profits (~+2.0%), and real consumer spending (~+1.6%) to judge the quality of growth. The GDP Price Index (~2.0%) and core PCE QoQ (~2.5%) inform Friday’s PCE setup.
Durable Goods Orders (8:30): Headline often volatile (transport), so emphasis falls on ex-transport (~0.1%) and non-defense ex-air—the cleanest proxy for core capex.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): Prior 231k; the four-week average, near 240k, indicates the trend.
Trade/Inventories (8:30): Goods Trade Balance (adv) and Wholesale/Retail Inventories (adv) help nowcast Q3 GDP.
Existing Home Sales (10:00): Prior 4.01M, consensus around 3.98M; affordability remains the primary brake even as rates fall.
EIA Natural Gas (10:30); Kansas City Fed (11:00).
Funding: 4- & 8-Week Bills (11:30), 7-Year Note (13:00), Fed Balance Sheet (16:30).
Mortgage Rates (12:00), another read on the transmission of the rate cut.
Market focus: Whether final GDP disinflation aligns with Friday’s PCE; core capital goods as a signal for business investment; claims to validate the “cooling not cracking” labor thesis.
Friday, September 19 – Household Sentiment
PCE Price Index (8:30): Headline +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y and core +2.9% y/y are the guideposts. Markets will also dissect services ex-housing (“supercore”) for the last-mile disinflation read.
Michigan Sentiment – Final (10:00): Overall sentiment ~55.4, expectations ~51.8, with 1-year inflation ~4.8% and 5-year ~3.9%. Anchored expectations lower the bar for continued easing.
Baker Hughes Rigs (13:00): Stable to modestly lower counts support contained energy prices; sharp declines could tighten balances into winter.
Market focus: Core PCE breadth, Michigan inflation anchors, and risk appetite into weekend geopolitics.
Weekly Importance Ranking:
PCE Price Index (Fri): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric; a benign print keeps a measured cutting path in play, while a hot read re-prices the curve.
Chair Powell (Tue): The clearest signal on whether policy shifts to sequential cuts or pause-and-assess.
GDP Final & Price Index (Thu): Confirms the growth/disinflation mix; profit and sales revisions can sway equities and credit.
S&P Global PMIs – Flash (Tue): Earliest read on September activity; the new orders vs. prices spread is key for forward margins.
New Home Sales (Wed): Tests whether falling mortgage rates translate into purchase demand versus just refis.
Durable Goods / Core Capex (Thu): A check on business investment momentum.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Real-time labor; a drift higher would support deeper easing, while stability limits the urgency.
EIA Petroleum (Wed): Inventory tightness can complicate disinflation via energy.
Treasury Auctions (all week): Demand composition and term premium can move rates independent of data.
Michigan Sentiment (Fri): Expectations and inflation anchors influence the Fed’s medium-term confidence.
Themes to Watch
Measured easing vs. one-and-done: With the first cut in the books, markets want clarity on cadence. A measured path supports duration and rate-sensitives; a pause-and-assess stance risks firmer dollar/vol and tighter financial conditions.
Demand quality, not just quantity: The PMI new-orders vs. prices spread and core capex proxies (non-defense, excluding air) will indicate whether final demand and investment are holding steady as policy loosens, key for 2026 earnings durability.
Housing transmission channel: Mortgage rates in the mid-6s have jump-started refis; the question is whether purchase demand and New Home Sales follow through, lifting turnover, construction activity, and housing-linked employment.
Last mile of disinflation: Core PCE (and services ex-housing “supercore”) plus GDP price metrics will indicate how sticky services inflation remains as wages cool and goods disinflate.
Term premium & funding: A crowded bill/notes auction slate and the Fed balance sheet can move the curve independent of data; watch tails, indirects, and foreign take-up for signs of a term-premium wobble.
Dollar path & external balances: The current account and policy tone (Powell) shape the dollar. A softer USD would aid ex-US and commodities; a firmer USD tightens global financial conditions and crimps EM.
Energy & Real Incomes: After last week’s crude draw, EIA inventories, product cracks, and natural-gas storage steer the headline CPI and the real-income tailwind into winter.
Labor cooling vs. resilience: Initial claims and PMI employment components are the cleanest high-frequency reads on whether labor is merely cooling or beginning to crack, pivotal for the depth of the cutting cycle.
Geopolitics at UNGA: Trade, supply-chain, or conflict headlines can jolt FX/commodities, alter inflation expectations at the margin, and reprice risk into quarter-end.
Risks & Opportunities
Risks
Hot PCE/Core: Would challenge the easing trajectory, push up real yields, and pressure duration and high-multiple equities.
Soft PMIs/Capex: A downshift in new orders and non-defense ex-air would signal weaker demand into Q4.
Auction Sloppiness: Larger-than-usual tails or weak indirect bids could lift the term premium and weigh on risk.
Housing Disappointment: If New Home Sales fail to respond to lower rates, it questions the potency of the transmission channel.
Energy Upside: Renewed draws or supply disruptions could re-ignite headline inflation.
Geopolitical Shocks: UNGA-related headlines on trade or conflict could spur flight-to-quality and dollar strength.
Opportunities
Duration on Disinflation: A benign PCE + solid auctions bolster the case for adding duration selectively.
Rate-Sensitives: Homebuilders, REITs, and regional lenders can benefit from cheaper financing and improved turnover.
Quality Small/Mid Caps: If PMIs remain above 50 and yields stabilize, breadth can improve beyond mega caps.
Global/FX Tilts: Softer inflation and orderly auctions can pressure the dollar, aiding ex-US and commodity-linked exposures.
Credit Carry: Stable claims and benign inflation support IG credit carry; HY needs growth to avoid spread widening.
Energy-User Relief: If inventories rebuild, transport, airlines, and consumer names gain a margin tailwind.
Quick Hits
Cut Path: Markets lean toward at least one more cut this year; Friday’s PCE will adjust odds.
Mortgage Channel: The fastest policy transmission remains mortgage rates; watch purchase vs. refi mix.
Labor Nowcast: The claims trend is the cleanest high-frequency gauge of cooling vs. cracking.
Orders-Prices Spread: In PMIs, a widening spread is constructive for margins; a narrowing one warns of pressure.
Curve Watch: 2- and 5-year auction outcomes are the early warning system for term-premium wobble.
Energy Balance: After last week’s crude draw, Cushing flows and runs drive the near-term direction.
Dollar Compass: Current account and auctions influence the dollar’s path—key for ex-US performance.
Quarter-End Flows: With quarter-end approaching, rebalancing can amplify rate moves and equity rotations.
Volatility Base: VIX near mid-teens leaves room for event-driven spikes if data or auctions surprise.
The Takeaway
Next week’s slate is a stress test for the soft-landing script. If PMIs hold above 50, New Home Sales firm, GDP disinflates as expected, and PCE prints close to consensus, markets can keep leaning into a measured easing path, supportive for duration and rate-sensitives with room for breadth beyond mega caps. But a hot PCE, weak capex, or sloppy auctions would quickly reprice the curve, firm the dollar, and challenge risk appetite.
Stay nimble, diversified, and data-responsive, and let Friday’s PCE be your north star for the policy path into Q4.
The Setup & Where to Focus
Markets head into the week of September 22 with a delicate mix of easing policy, improving rate-sensitive activity, and still-uneven growth signals. Last week’s first 25-bp cut set the tone: lower mortgage rates jump-started applications and refinances, while consumption remained steady. At the same time, leading indicators slipped and regional factories diverged, keeping the soft-landing debate very much alive.
This coming week offers a high-resolution look at the economy from several angles. On Tuesday, S&P Global’s flash PMIs provide the earliest read on September’s activity, particularly the new orders vs. prices spread that markets use as a demand “nowcast.” Wednesday’s New Home Sales will test how far lower mortgage rates can pull potential buyers off the sidelines. Thursday brings the final Q2 GDP suite alongside Durable Goods Orders, claims, and inventory/trade data, critical for recalibrating growth and capex expectations into Q4. And on Friday, we get the PCE Price Index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and the week’s ultimate arbiter for the path of cuts.
The policy narrative stays center stage. A dense roster of Fed speakers culminates with Chair Powell on Tuesday, giving markets another chance to understand whether the Committee is preparing a measured cutting cycle or prefers a pause-and-assess cadence. A busy Treasury auction slate and the UN General Assembly add cross-currents that can influence the dollar, rates, and energy, just as investors reassess risk exposures into quarter-end.
Recap: What Happened Last Week
The macro mix remained “mixed but not broken.” On the factory front, the Empire State Manufacturing Survey fell to −8.7 (first contraction since June) while Philly Fed surged to +23.2, the best since January. Taken together, the surveys argue for patchy regional momentum rather than a broad-based slowdown.
Consumers continue to do the heavy lifting. Retail Sales rose 0.6% month-over-month, led by autos and online categories, and Industrial Production edged up 0.1% month-over-month after July’s dip, enough to keep near-term GDP tracking in the positive column. Yet the Conference Board Leading Index fell −0.5% (six-month change −2.8%), consistent with a slower growth phase even as initial jobless claims at 231k signaled a labor market that’s cooling, not cracking.
Housing finally showed signs of responsiveness to policy. 30-year mortgage rates slid into the 6.2%–6.4% range, and MBA applications jumped +29.7% w/w (refis +58%), indicating that rate relief is transmitting quickly through the interest-rate channel. Builders, however, remain cautious as NAHB fell to 43, reflecting affordability and cost headwinds that won’t disappear overnight.
Energy data tightened the inflation narrative marginally. The weekly EIA report recorded a large crude draw (−9.3M bbl) with gasoline stocks down and distillates up, an autumnal pattern that can matter if demand holds. Markets took the week’s blend as constructively dovish: duration found sponsorship, rate-sensitives outperformed, and risk appetite improved—but investors remain tethered to the inflation trajectory and the speed of labor cooling to justify further easing.
The Look Ahead
Monday, September 15 – Consumer Check
Chicago Fed National Activity Index (8:30): A composite of 85 indicators, CFNAI helps determine whether growth is above or below trend. Stability after the recent dip in leading indicators would support the soft-landing case; renewed weakness would underline slowing momentum.
Fed Speakers: Williams (9:45), Musalem (10:00), Barkin (12:00), Hammack (12:00). Markets will parse post-cut reaction function themes: how quickly cuts could proceed, how policy makers view neutral, and whether they see evidence of an imminent reacceleration.
3- & 6-Month Bill Auctions (11:30): A steady front-end bid reinforces smooth funding and keeps a lid on near-term volatility.
UN General Assembly (20:00): Geopolitical headlines can influence energy, FX, and term premium, especially if trade or supply themes surface.
Market focus: Does CFNAI echo “mixed but resilient,” or does it tilt toward below-trend growth?
Market focus: Does CFNAI echo “mixed but resilient,” or does it tilt toward below-trend growth?
Tuesday, September 16 – Labor Market Reset
S&P Global PMIs – Flash (9:45): With Manufacturing (prior 53.0), Services (prior 54.5), Composite (prior 55.1; latest tracking ~54.6), the new orders vs. prices spread is the single most important lead indicator for corporate earnings and margins. A firm spread supports risk appetite; a narrowing one flags softer demand or stickier input costs.
Current Account (8:30) & Redbook (8:55): External balances frame the dollar’s path; high-frequency retail adds texture to September spending.
Fed Chair Powell (12:35), plus Bowman (9:00) and Bostic (10:00): Tone on “measured cycle” vs. “one-and-pause” matters more than backward-looking data.
2-Year Note Auction (13:00): The front end is the purest read on policy expectations. A strong auction anchors 2s; a sloppy one can ripple out the curve.
Richmond Fed (10:00) & API Crude (16:30): Regional factory color and an energy preview for Wednesday.
Market focus: Powell’s language regarding labor risks versus service inflation, PMI new orders, and 2-year auction dynamics.
Wednesday, September 17 – Inflation Pipeline & Fiscal Watch
MBA Mortgage Report (7:00): After last week’s surge, watch purchase vs. refi mix and the 30-yr rate. Sustained improvement in purchases would imply real housing turnover, not just refinancing.
Building Permits – Final (8:00): Revisions from 1.362M to 1.312M matter for supply and the construction pipeline.
New Home Sales (10:00): Consensus is near 0.65M (prior 0.652M). New construction has been the relief valve for low existing inventory; softness would flag the limits of affordability even with lower rates.
EIA Petroleum Status (10:30): Following the outsized crude draw, attention will focus on Cushing stocks, product cracks, and imports/runs to assess whether tightness persists.
Auctions: 17-Week Bill (11:30); 5-Year Note and 2-Year FRN (13:00).
Fed Daly (16:10).
Market focus: Months’ supply and median prices in New Home Sales; whether EIA confirms continued tightening; 5-year auction tail/indirects for duration appetite.
Thursday, September 18 – The Big One: CPI Day
GDP – Final (8:30): The last look at Q2 growth. Markets will mine GDP sales (~6.8%), corporate profits (~+2.0%), and real consumer spending (~+1.6%) to judge the quality of growth. The GDP Price Index (~2.0%) and core PCE QoQ (~2.5%) inform Friday’s PCE setup.
Durable Goods Orders (8:30): Headline often volatile (transport), so emphasis falls on ex-transport (~0.1%) and non-defense ex-air—the cleanest proxy for core capex.
Initial Jobless Claims (8:30): Prior 231k; the four-week average, near 240k, indicates the trend.
Trade/Inventories (8:30): Goods Trade Balance (adv) and Wholesale/Retail Inventories (adv) help nowcast Q3 GDP.
Existing Home Sales (10:00): Prior 4.01M, consensus around 3.98M; affordability remains the primary brake even as rates fall.
EIA Natural Gas (10:30); Kansas City Fed (11:00).
Funding: 4- & 8-Week Bills (11:30), 7-Year Note (13:00), Fed Balance Sheet (16:30).
Mortgage Rates (12:00), another read on the transmission of the rate cut.
Market focus: Whether final GDP disinflation aligns with Friday’s PCE; core capital goods as a signal for business investment; claims to validate the “cooling not cracking” labor thesis.
Friday, September 19 – Household Sentiment
PCE Price Index (8:30): Headline +0.2% m/m, +2.6% y/y and core +2.9% y/y are the guideposts. Markets will also dissect services ex-housing (“supercore”) for the last-mile disinflation read.
Michigan Sentiment – Final (10:00): Overall sentiment ~55.4, expectations ~51.8, with 1-year inflation ~4.8% and 5-year ~3.9%. Anchored expectations lower the bar for continued easing.
Baker Hughes Rigs (13:00): Stable to modestly lower counts support contained energy prices; sharp declines could tighten balances into winter.
Market focus: Core PCE breadth, Michigan inflation anchors, and risk appetite into weekend geopolitics.
Weekly Importance Ranking:
PCE Price Index (Fri): The Fed’s preferred inflation metric; a benign print keeps a measured cutting path in play, while a hot read re-prices the curve.
Chair Powell (Tue): The clearest signal on whether policy shifts to sequential cuts or pause-and-assess.
GDP Final & Price Index (Thu): Confirms the growth/disinflation mix; profit and sales revisions can sway equities and credit.
S&P Global PMIs – Flash (Tue): Earliest read on September activity; the new orders vs. prices spread is key for forward margins.
New Home Sales (Wed): Tests whether falling mortgage rates translate into purchase demand versus just refis.
Durable Goods / Core Capex (Thu): A check on business investment momentum.
Initial Jobless Claims (Thu): Real-time labor; a drift higher would support deeper easing, while stability limits the urgency.
EIA Petroleum (Wed): Inventory tightness can complicate disinflation via energy.
Treasury Auctions (all week): Demand composition and term premium can move rates independent of data.
Michigan Sentiment (Fri): Expectations and inflation anchors influence the Fed’s medium-term confidence.
Themes to Watch
Measured easing vs. one-and-done: With the first cut in the books, markets want clarity on cadence. A measured path supports duration and rate-sensitives; a pause-and-assess stance risks firmer dollar/vol and tighter financial conditions.
Demand quality, not just quantity: The PMI new-orders vs. prices spread and core capex proxies (non-defense, excluding air) will indicate whether final demand and investment are holding steady as policy loosens, key for 2026 earnings durability.
Housing transmission channel: Mortgage rates in the mid-6s have jump-started refis; the question is whether purchase demand and New Home Sales follow through, lifting turnover, construction activity, and housing-linked employment.
Last mile of disinflation: Core PCE (and services ex-housing “supercore”) plus GDP price metrics will indicate how sticky services inflation remains as wages cool and goods disinflate.
Term premium & funding: A crowded bill/notes auction slate and the Fed balance sheet can move the curve independent of data; watch tails, indirects, and foreign take-up for signs of a term-premium wobble.
Dollar path & external balances: The current account and policy tone (Powell) shape the dollar. A softer USD would aid ex-US and commodities; a firmer USD tightens global financial conditions and crimps EM.
Energy & Real Incomes: After last week’s crude draw, EIA inventories, product cracks, and natural-gas storage steer the headline CPI and the real-income tailwind into winter.
Labor cooling vs. resilience: Initial claims and PMI employment components are the cleanest high-frequency reads on whether labor is merely cooling or beginning to crack, pivotal for the depth of the cutting cycle.
Geopolitics at UNGA: Trade, supply-chain, or conflict headlines can jolt FX/commodities, alter inflation expectations at the margin, and reprice risk into quarter-end.
Risks & Opportunities
Risks
Hot PCE/Core: Would challenge the easing trajectory, push up real yields, and pressure duration and high-multiple equities.
Soft PMIs/Capex: A downshift in new orders and non-defense ex-air would signal weaker demand into Q4.
Auction Sloppiness: Larger-than-usual tails or weak indirect bids could lift the term premium and weigh on risk.
Housing Disappointment: If New Home Sales fail to respond to lower rates, it questions the potency of the transmission channel.
Energy Upside: Renewed draws or supply disruptions could re-ignite headline inflation.
Geopolitical Shocks: UNGA-related headlines on trade or conflict could spur flight-to-quality and dollar strength.
Opportunities
Duration on Disinflation: A benign PCE + solid auctions bolster the case for adding duration selectively.
Rate-Sensitives: Homebuilders, REITs, and regional lenders can benefit from cheaper financing and improved turnover.
Quality Small/Mid Caps: If PMIs remain above 50 and yields stabilize, breadth can improve beyond mega caps.
Global/FX Tilts: Softer inflation and orderly auctions can pressure the dollar, aiding ex-US and commodity-linked exposures.
Credit Carry: Stable claims and benign inflation support IG credit carry; HY needs growth to avoid spread widening.
Energy-User Relief: If inventories rebuild, transport, airlines, and consumer names gain a margin tailwind.
Quick Hits
Cut Path: Markets lean toward at least one more cut this year; Friday’s PCE will adjust odds.
Mortgage Channel: The fastest policy transmission remains mortgage rates; watch purchase vs. refi mix.
Labor Nowcast: The claims trend is the cleanest high-frequency gauge of cooling vs. cracking.
Orders-Prices Spread: In PMIs, a widening spread is constructive for margins; a narrowing one warns of pressure.
Curve Watch: 2- and 5-year auction outcomes are the early warning system for term-premium wobble.
Energy Balance: After last week’s crude draw, Cushing flows and runs drive the near-term direction.
Dollar Compass: Current account and auctions influence the dollar’s path—key for ex-US performance.
Quarter-End Flows: With quarter-end approaching, rebalancing can amplify rate moves and equity rotations.
Volatility Base: VIX near mid-teens leaves room for event-driven spikes if data or auctions surprise.
The Takeaway
Next week’s slate is a stress test for the soft-landing script. If PMIs hold above 50, New Home Sales firm, GDP disinflates as expected, and PCE prints close to consensus, markets can keep leaning into a measured easing path, supportive for duration and rate-sensitives with room for breadth beyond mega caps. But a hot PCE, weak capex, or sloppy auctions would quickly reprice the curve, firm the dollar, and challenge risk appetite.
Stay nimble, diversified, and data-responsive, and let Friday’s PCE be your north star for the policy path into Q4.
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Any links provided to other websites are offered as a matter of convenience and are not intended to imply that Allio or its writers endorse, sponsor, promote, and/or are affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorses any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated otherwise.
Allio may publish content that has been created by affiliated or unaffiliated contributors, who may include employees, other financial advisors, third-party authors who are paid a fee by Allio, or other parties. Unless otherwise noted, the content of such posts does not necessarily represent the actual views or opinions of Allio or any of its officers, directors, or employees. The opinions expressed by guest writers and/or article sources/interviewees are strictly their own and do not necessarily represent those of Allio.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
For content related to taxes, you should know that you should not rely on the information as tax advice. Articles or FAQs do not constitute a tax opinion and are not intended or written to be used, nor can they be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer.
The articles and customer support materials available on this property by Allio are educational only and not investment or tax advice.
If not otherwise specified above, this page contains original content by Allio Advisors LLC. This content is for general informational purposes only.
The information provided should be used at your own risk.
The original content provided here by Allio should not be construed as personal financial planning, tax, or financial advice. Whether an article, FAQ, customer support collateral, or interactive calculator, all original content by Allio is only for general informational purposes.
While we do our utmost to present fair, accurate reporting and analysis, Allio offers no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the published articles. Please pay attention to the original publication date and last updated date of each article. Allio offers no guarantee that it will update its articles after the date they were posted with subsequent developments of any kind, including, but not limited to, any subsequent changes in the relevant laws and regulations.
Any links provided to other websites are offered as a matter of convenience and are not intended to imply that Allio or its writers endorse, sponsor, promote, and/or are affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorses any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated otherwise.
Allio may publish content that has been created by affiliated or unaffiliated contributors, who may include employees, other financial advisors, third-party authors who are paid a fee by Allio, or other parties. Unless otherwise noted, the content of such posts does not necessarily represent the actual views or opinions of Allio or any of its officers, directors, or employees. The opinions expressed by guest writers and/or article sources/interviewees are strictly their own and do not necessarily represent those of Allio.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
For content related to taxes, you should know that you should not rely on the information as tax advice. Articles or FAQs do not constitute a tax opinion and are not intended or written to be used, nor can they be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer.
The articles and customer support materials available on this property by Allio are educational only and not investment or tax advice.
If not otherwise specified above, this page contains original content by Allio Advisors LLC. This content is for general informational purposes only.
The information provided should be used at your own risk.
The original content provided here by Allio should not be construed as personal financial planning, tax, or financial advice. Whether an article, FAQ, customer support collateral, or interactive calculator, all original content by Allio is only for general informational purposes.
While we do our utmost to present fair, accurate reporting and analysis, Allio offers no warranties about the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the published articles. Please pay attention to the original publication date and last updated date of each article. Allio offers no guarantee that it will update its articles after the date they were posted with subsequent developments of any kind, including, but not limited to, any subsequent changes in the relevant laws and regulations.
Any links provided to other websites are offered as a matter of convenience and are not intended to imply that Allio or its writers endorse, sponsor, promote, and/or are affiliated with the owners of or participants in those sites, or endorses any information contained on those sites, unless expressly stated otherwise.
Allio may publish content that has been created by affiliated or unaffiliated contributors, who may include employees, other financial advisors, third-party authors who are paid a fee by Allio, or other parties. Unless otherwise noted, the content of such posts does not necessarily represent the actual views or opinions of Allio or any of its officers, directors, or employees. The opinions expressed by guest writers and/or article sources/interviewees are strictly their own and do not necessarily represent those of Allio.
For informational purposes only; not personalized investment advice. All investments involve risk of loss. Past performance of any index or strategy is not indicative of future results. Any projections or forward-looking statements are hypothetical and not guaranteed. Allio is an SEC-registered investment adviser – see our Form ADV for details. No content should be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell any security.
For content related to taxes, you should know that you should not rely on the information as tax advice. Articles or FAQs do not constitute a tax opinion and are not intended or written to be used, nor can they be used, by any taxpayer for the purpose of avoiding penalties that may be imposed on the taxpayer.
What We Do
What We Say
Legal
Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025
What We Do
What We Say
Legal
Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025
What We Do
What We Say
Legal
Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Use and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025
Who We Are
Allio Advisors LLC ("Allio") is an SEC registered investment advisor. By using this website, you accept our Terms of Service and our Privacy Policy. Allio's investment advisory services are available only to residents of the United States. Nothing on this website should be considered an offer, recommendation, solicitation of an offer, or advice to buy or sell any security. The information provided herein is for informational and general educational purposes only and is not investment or financial advice. Additionally, Allio does not provide tax advice and investors are encouraged to consult with their tax advisor. By law, we must provide investment advice that is in the best interest of our client. Please refer to Allio's ADV Part 2A Brochure for important additional information. Please see our Customer Relationship Summary.
Online trading has inherent risk due to system response, execution price, speed, liquidity, market data and access times that may vary due to market conditions, system performance, market volatility, size and type of order and other factors. An investor should understand these and additional risks before trading. Any historical returns, expected returns, or probability projections are hypothetical in nature and may not reflect actual future performance. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
Brokerage services will be provided to Allio clients through Allio Markets LLC, ("Allio Markets") SEC-registered broker-dealer and member FINRA/SIPC . Securities in your account protected up to $500,000. For details, please see www.sipc.org. Allio Advisors LLC and Allio Markets LLC are separate but affiliated companies.
Securities products are: Not FDIC insured · Not bank guaranteed · May lose value
Any investment , trade-related or brokerage questions shall be communicated to support@alliocapital.com
Please read Important Legal Disclosures
v1 01.20.2025