The Setup & Where to Focus

Markets enter the third week of September with momentum on their side after a dense stretch of economic releases in the week of September 8. Stocks finished higher, bonds staged a powerful rally, and gold pressed to record levels as investors weighed softer labor signals and cooler, but not cold, inflation data. Treasury auctions and the government’s latest budget update underscored a heavy fiscal backdrop, yet markets digested the supply with only modest volatility.

The standout was the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual benchmark revision, which subtracted more than 800,000 jobs from previously reported payrolls. Combined with a disappointing August nonfarm payrolls gain of just 22,000, this reinforced the message that the labor market is losing steam. Jobless claims ticked higher, Challenger job cuts rose for a second straight month, and the unemployment rate climbed to cycle highs. All of that came just as inflation gauges, Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI), showed modest monthly increases but remained well above the Fed’s 2% target.

Bond markets reacted strongly. The 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 4.0% after touching multi-week highs earlier, while the yield curve steepened as front-end rates collapsed. Futures markets priced in near certainty of at least a quarter-point Fed rate cut at the September 17 FOMC meeting, with odds of a larger 50-basis-point move rising as data flowed in. Meanwhile, gold surged more than 2%, silver gained, and Bitcoin posted a strong rebound above $110,000.

Heading into the week of September 15, attention shifts to fresh insights on manufacturing and housing, retail sales, industrial activity, and the Fed’s updated interest rate projections. The Federal Reserve’s two-day meeting concludes September 17, making this one of the most consequential weeks of the year for markets.

Recap: What Happened Last Week

Markets were treated to a barrage of data that both confirmed the labor market slowdown and clarified the inflation backdrop. The biggest headline came from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual benchmark revision, which shaved 818,000 jobs from previously reported payroll totals. Combined with August’s weak nonfarm payrolls increase of just 22,000, this marked one of the softest stretches of hiring since the pandemic recovery years. Initial jobless claims ticked higher, and Challenger job cuts rose for a second consecutive month, reinforcing the message that the labor market has shifted into stall speed.

At the same time, inflation data offered mixed relief. The Producer Price Index (PPI) cooled from July’s hot 0.9% gain, rising 0.3% month-over-month in August, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) matched expectations at 0.3% for both the headline and core measures. Services inflation, notably shelter, remained sticky, keeping year-over-year CPI at 2.9% (headline) and 3.1% (core). The prints didn’t derail expectations for a September Fed cut but did remind investors that disinflation remains incomplete.

On the fiscal and funding side, Treasury auctions drew solid demand across the curve, highlighted by strong participation in the 30-year bond sale. The August Monthly Budget Statement showed another large federal deficit, underscoring the structural challenges in balancing spending and revenue. Meanwhile, consumer credit rose by $16 billion in July, showing households are still borrowing, though cautiously, even as used car prices stabilized after months of decline.

Commodities and energy added to the week’s narrative. API and EIA data showed modest crude builds but sharp gasoline draws, consistent with seasonal transitions in refining. Oil prices hovered in the mid-$60s, while natural gas inventories rose comfortably, keeping prices contained.

Markets digested the week’s events with optimism. Equities rallied into fresh highs, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both advancing, while gold surged to record levels above $3,600. Bitcoin climbed back above $110,000, supported by dovish Fed bets. Treasury yields fell sharply, with the 10-year closing the week near 4.0%, and the dollar weakened on expectations of imminent policy easing. The overall takeaway is that the labor market has softened materially, inflation is cooling but not yet conquered, and the Fed remains on track to cut rates at its September meeting.

The Look Ahead

Monday, September 15 – Consumer Check

• Empire State Manufacturing Index (8:30 AM): Forecast 3.0 vs prior 11.9. A cooling print would signal weakening demand in the New York region, following mixed ISM and PMI data earlier this month.

• Bill Auctions (11:30 AM): Routine 3- and 6-month auctions are expected; no major surprises are anticipated.

• NOPA Crush Report (12:00 PM): Industry watchers will parse soybean demand and processing margins, relevant for ag markets and inflation pass-through.
  
  

Market focus: Empire State’s employment and prices-paid subindexes as a preview to Thursday’s Philly Fed.

Tuesday, September 16 – Labor Market Reset

• Retail Sales (8:30 AM): The marquee data point. Control group expected +0.5% MoM, with ex-autos +0.3%. A miss would raise fears of consumer fatigue.

• Import/Export Prices (8:30 AM): Inflation at the trade level; tariffs have amplified volatility.

• Redbook Sales (8:55 AM): High-frequency retail update; July/August readings showed resilient spending.

• Industrial Production & Capacity Utilization (9:15 AM): Gauges of factory activity; forecasts flat.

• NAHB Housing Market Index (10:00 AM): Builder sentiment stuck near lows; a shift higher would suggest improving affordability.

• Business Inventories (10:00 AM): Insight into Q3 GDP tracking.

• 20-Year Treasury Auction (1:00 PM): A test of investor demand for long duration.

• API Crude Oil Stock Change (4:30 PM): Sets the stage for Wednesday’s EIA data.
  
  

Market focus: Retail sales vs. industrial production; a divergence could fuel stagflation worries.

Wednesday, September 17 – Inflation Pipeline & Fiscal Watch

• MBA Mortgage Applications (7:00 AM): Demand remains weak despite modest rate relief.

• EIA Petroleum Status (10:30 AM): Inventories and runs to gauge crude’s balance.

• 17-Week Bill Auction (11:30 AM): Minor event ahead of Fed.

• FOMC Decision & Projections (2:00 PM): Market expects a 25 bp cut, but the SEP will reveal the Fed’s “dot plot.” Watch 2025–2027 interest rate forecasts.

• Powell Press Conference (2:30 PM): Forward guidance is the real story. Will Powell validate a cutting cycle or temper expectations?
  
  
  

Market focus: Whether the Fed signals one-and-done or a path of sequential cuts.

Thursday, September 18 – The Big One: CPI Day

• Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey (8:30 AM): Expected to moderate from August’s strong 25.0. Subcomponents of prices and new orders will be critical.

• Initial & Continuing Jobless Claims (8:30 AM): Weekly claims expected to be around 237K; trend is higher but not spiking.

• Conference Board Leading Index (10:00 AM): Forecast flat; a downturn would suggest rising recession risk.

• EIA Natural Gas Storage (10:30 AM): Seasonal builds continue; inventories are ample.

• Treasury Auctions (11:30 AM, 12:00 PM): Bill and 10-year TIPS supply.

• Mortgage Rates (12:00 PM): Freddie Mac update; 30-year rate remains in the mid-6s.

• TIC Data (4:00 PM): Foreign capital flows are key to funding the US deficit.
  
  

Market focus: Philly Fed as a manufacturing barometer, plus TIC flows for fiscal sustainability themes.

Friday, September 19 – Household Sentiment

• Baker Hughes Rig Count (1:00 PM): Weekly rig data; steady counts imply stable production.
  
  

Market focus: Oil supply backdrop, particularly if OPEC+ chatter intensifies.

Weekly Importance Ranking:

1. CPI (Thursday) – Decides whether “cut in September” remains the base case and drives the belly/long end of the curve.

2. PPI (Wednesday) – Pipeline pressure; a hot read will pre-position CPI pricing and weigh on duration.

3. Nonfarm Payrolls Benchmark Revision (Tuesday) – A potentially extensive downward revision to the jobs level, reinforcing labor market slack.

4. Jobless Claims (Thursday) – Confirms the softening labor market trajectory in real-time.

5. Michigan Sentiment & Inflation Expectations (Friday) – Anchoring of expectations matters for the Fed’s medium-term confidence.

6. Treasury Supply (10-yr Wednesday, 30-yr Thursday, bills all week) – Term premium and fiscal optics can move rates even if data cooperate.

7. Energy/Inventory Suite (API/EIA/WASDE/Rigs) – Headline inflation and real income hinge on energy and food into winter.

Themes to Watch

The Fed’s Big Decision – The September 17 FOMC meeting is the centerpiece. Powell’s Jackson Hole speech set the stage for cuts; the market expects at least 25 basis points. The key will be whether the Fed hints at more aggressive easing via the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP).

Retail Sales & Consumer Strength – Tuesday’s retail sales report will test whether consumer demand is still resilient. With job growth slowing and inflation sticky, retail spending is the swing factor for GDP in Q3.

Housing Signals – The NAHB Housing Market Index and MBA mortgage data will indicate whether lower rates are finally easing affordability pressures or if housing demand remains stagnant.

Regional Manufacturing – The Empire State and Philly Fed surveys frame the industrial outlook. Recent PMIs suggest a mixed picture: services steady, manufacturing sluggish.

Energy & Commodities – Oil stock changes and NOPA crush report (soybeans) give supply-side signals. Crude has hovered in the mid-$60s, but inventories and refining dynamics could shift prices.

Risks & Opportunities

Risks

• Sticky Inflation: Shelter and services inflation remain stubborn, raising the risk that headline disinflation stalls. A hotter print could force the Fed to slow or scale back cuts.

• Labor Market Weakness: Benchmark revisions and rising jobless claims show hiring demand is softening. If layoffs accelerate, consumer spending could falter, potentially tipping growth into a sharper slowdown.

• Seasonal Volatility: September is historically the weakest month for equities, with average S&P 500 returns of -1.17%. Even low volatility now (VIX < 15) could reverse quickly.

• Global Political Uncertainty: Fiscal credibility issues in the UK, political gridlock in Europe, and tariff disputes continue to add external risk to markets.

• Energy Market Wildcards: Autumn heating demand and geopolitical flare-ups could trigger oil or natural gas price spikes, reigniting concerns about inflation.
  
  

Opportunities

• Small-Cap Rotation: Lower yields and a steeper curve disproportionately benefit small-cap and mid-cap companies reliant on short-term financing.

• Rate-Sensitive Sectors: Real estate, regional banks, and homebuilders are positioned to benefit from falling borrowing costs and improving financing conditions.

• Bond Market Appeal: Longer-dated Treasuries look more attractive as yields remain elevated relative to cash, while steepening opens carry opportunities.

• Precious Metals Hedge: Silver continues to outperform gold on a relative basis, offering an inflation hedge with upside momentum.

• Selective Commodities: Crude oil inventories and refinery dynamics may cap near-term price spikes, creating breathing room for consumer-facing industries.

Quick Hits

• Rate Cut Odds: Market-implied probability of a September Fed rate cut hovers near 80%, but traders now assign a slight chance (~10–15%) to a larger 50-basis-point move if inflation cools further.

• Labor Market Revision: The BLS benchmark revision showed 818,000 fewer jobs were created from March 2024 to March 2025 than initially reported—reinforcing that job growth has been weaker than headlines suggested.

• Volatility Slips: The VIX dropped back below 15, marking its lowest level since December 2024, though seasonal September risks could quickly reawaken volatility.

• Flows Diverge: Money market funds continue to dominate inflows, pulling in nearly $1 trillion over the past year, while equity funds remain a distant second with under $300 billion in new money.

• Small Cap Surge: The Russell 2000 logged its strongest daily performance since June 2020 after Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, underscoring investor appetite for domestically focused, rate-sensitive names.

• Global Watch: Eurozone inflation ticked higher to 2.1% in August, complicating the ECB’s easing calculus, while Japanese bond yields remain volatile amid BOJ hints of gradual tightening.

The Takeaway

The week of September 15 centers on the Federal Reserve’s September decision. A quarter-point rate cut is nearly specific, but the scale of forward easing will depend on Powell’s tone and the dot plot. Retail sales will test consumer resilience, while regional manufacturing surveys will help clarify whether growth is stabilizing or slipping. Markets are leaning dovish; surprises in inflation, spending, or Fed messaging could swing sentiment sharply.