Updated September 24, 2025
When the Government Comes Marching In: Trump, Markets, and Public-Private Sector Tensions
When the Government Comes Marching In: Trump, Markets, and Public-Private Sector Tensions
When the Government Comes Marching In: Trump, Markets, and Public-Private Sector Tensions
Allio Capital Team
The Macroscope
When the Government Comes Marching In: Trump, Markets, and Public-Private Sector Tensions
The Trump Administration continues to exert pressure across industries
Free speech concerns are now at the forefront, worrying parts of the political left and right
Financial markets remain resilient, and we outline the macro risks and opportunities that Ray Dalio has recently opined on
Free-market capitalists have had to come to grips with Trump 2.0. The president continues to have more than just a say in private-sector issues. The “dealmaker-in-chief" has negotiated terms of an equity stake in Intel (INTC), MP Materials (MP), and the creation of a so-called “golden share” to give the federal government influence over Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel (X).
Investors have grown increasingly concerned about what seems like a more muscular reach by the US government into sectors typically thought to operate with some distance from political oversight: corporations, media, and regulatory institutions. With stocks notching all-time highs, President Trump confirmed a 10% equity stake in Intel, with a subsequent investment from NVIDIA (NVDA). Then, the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel Live! struck a chord beyond the financial markets, as the apparent pressure from the FCC caused Disney (the parent company of ABC) to pull the late-night comedy show.
These incidents have raised alarms about state influence over private enterprise and free speech more broadly. Against this backdrop, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the United States may be evolving toward more autocratic norms. Is there cause for alarm? Should you reshuffle your portfolio? These are weighty issues.
There are risks and opportunities. Let’s examine what’s actually happening, without looking through the gritty mainstream media lens. We’ll tie in the current regime with Dalio’s perspectives and what it all may mean for markets. As always, we take our signal from price action and stay anchored to long-term investing principles.
The New Incidents: Intel, Media, and Regulatory Pressure
Two high-profile cases illustrate the backdrop of unprecedented executive reach into the private domain.
Intel and the US Government’s Stake
On August 22, 2025, the Trump administration struck a deal with Intel under which the US government will make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, amounting to about 9.9% ownership. The beleaguered legacy semiconductor giant is now a mere shadow of its former self and has been boat-raced by NVIDIA for years. Long before the August announcement, however, President Trump and even former President Biden aimed to reshore domestic chip manufacturing for a matter of national security.
Traditionally, the federal government is merely a customer in defense companies, not a shareholder. The INTC deal breaks new ground, but there are important nuances to consider.
First, the funding stems from grants awarded under the Biden administration’s previous legislation (the CHIPS and Science Act) and the Secure Enclave program. Trump rejiggered the deal so that instead of a grant, the government owns shares.
Second, the stake is passive, with no board seats or governance rights—the president has underscored this in interviews.
Third, the INTC arrangement includes a warrant for an additional 5% position, which can be exercised at $20 per share if Intel reduces its ownership of its foundry business below 51%, a condition designed to ensure the company maintains control of its manufacturing arm.
Critics are uneasy. Some see this as state intervention in what is supposed to be market‐driven innovation, with risks of political pressure stretching beyond this case. Others argue it's necessary for national security and strategic technology sovereignty, especially in semiconductors, AI, and the ever-vulnerable tech supply chain.
Bigger picture, it begs the question: What happens when the shoe is on the other foot? Trump supporters and populist Republicans may support this share grab, but what about when a Democrat orchestrates such a future deal? As with many of Trump’s actions, this sets a worrisome precedent for when the balance of power shifts.
Congrats: The US Taxpayer is +48% on the Intel Stake
Source: Stockcharts.com
Jimmy Kimmel, the FCC, and Free Speech Concerns
A separate but related episode concerns media, regulation, and speech. Jimmy Kimmel Live! was suspended indefinitely by ABC following backlash over comments made in Kimmel’s recent monologue about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. It wasn’t so much the conservative response that drew scrutiny.
Rather, the turning point was FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatening regulatory action against ABC or its affiliates, suggesting that airing certain content could put network broadcasters at risk with respect to their FCC licensing and public‐interest obligations. Carr was outspoken about Kimmel's “jokes” about the MAGA movement immediately after Kirk’s September 10th assassination, deriding the comic’s remarks as “the sickest conduct possible.”
Within hours, affiliates like Nexstar Media Group, itself awaiting FCC approval for a $6.2 billion acquisition of a company called Tegna, opted to preempt the show, citing "offensive and insensitive" content. ABC followed suit, which immediately sent Hollywood up in arms. What’s more, free speech organizations, civil liberties groups, and politicians objected, calling it censorship. Of course, these are some of the same outfits that had no qualms about Roseanne, Tucker Carlson, Tim Allen (among others) being taken off the air for political commentary.
Another perspective? The big three TV networks may simply be looking for excuses to remove unprofitable shows from their respective lineups. Late-night comedy programs have morphed from Johnny Carson's snappy cultural one-liners to modern political verbal diaries, seeking political agreement from audiences, not laughs. Today, Americans seem to prefer getting jokes from YouTube, TikTok, or even cable news. Fox News’ Gutfeld! consistently ranks as the top-rated late-night program, even with the non-Baby Boomer 18-49 age demographic.
Perhaps the real concern is what happens next. Legal experts note that while the First Amendment shields against direct government censorship, indirect coercion (via merger approvals or funding cuts) poses a grayer threat. Trump himself amplified the pressure, suggesting that networks "against" him may lose their licenses, while deferring to Carr's discretion.
Free Speech Under Siege?
Source: Fox News
Dalio's Warning: Autocracy's Creep and Investor Jitters
Ray Dalio weighed in. His public remarks were nothing short of a warning to investors that the US shows signs of sliding toward what he dubs “1930s-style autocracy.” In a September Financial Times interview, the legendary hedge fund manager called out several key points that could bring about macro turmoil if not managed responsibly in the years ahead:
Growing State Intervention
Dalio points to deeper government involvement in private corporations as evidence of the state’s desire to reassert control over economic and financial decisions. This is a key facet of the Big Cycle, which we detail in our seminal The Macro Masterpiece article. Nations rise and fall, and “the top” is often marked by a less productive society, an overextended government, a loss of economic competitiveness, and widening wealth gaps. Germaine to today, Dalio cited the Intel deal as an example of “strong autocratic leadership.” Conservatives of Milton Friedman’s ilk might label it “crony capitalism.”
Wealth & Value Gaps
Also tethered to the Big Cycle is the modern “K-shaped” economy. There are haves and have-nots; those who grow richer with each percentage-point climb in the S&P 500 and those who struggle to afford necessary goods and services. Dalio criticized increasing political and social polarization, inequality, and eroding trust between citizens and institutions. It’s a vicious cycle that feeds the big-government machine’s centralized power. On the left and right, when people lose faith that democratic processes function fairly, there is more acceptance of executive power or regulatory overreach.
Risk to Institutional Independence
Dalio also warns about risks to the independence of institutions like the Federal Reserve. As the FTC/Kimmel drama played out, the Fed gathered to decide on the direction of interest rates. A rookie was in the room. His name was Stephen Miran, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers to the president. Many economists are unsettled by Miran, a Trump loyalist, filling the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. It’s a topic we have delved into before, and Miran was the lone dissenter in the 12-vote tally to cut rates by a quarter point. That’s a case in point of broader angst about politicizing appointments or exerting pressure to redirect policy.
Political Fear and Market Behavior
The Financial Times article details Dalio’s concerns that many market participants are privately worried, but reluctant to speak out openly, due to the possibility of retaliation or political risk. Meanwhile, growing deficits, debt accumulation, and federal spending without long‐term fiscal discipline pose macro risks. President Trump has been effective in “herding the cats,” so to speak, on key political decisions and paths. Unlike his first term, there have been few mavericks in Trump’s cabinet. Consensus-building may be effective in enacting an agenda, but it may also result in growing systemic perils.
Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle
Source: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
Mapping the Connections: Trump’s Heavy Hand in Practice
Putting these together, the Intel deal and the Kimmel‐FCC episode are concrete cases of what Dalio fears:
In Intel’s case, the government as a shareholder blurs the public-private boundaries. Even though the stake is passive, the optics, negotiation, and leverage suggest that companies may be more beholden to political priorities. "State intervention in the private sector... is the sort of strong autocratic leadership that sprang out of the desire to take control of the financial and economic situation,” claims Dalio. Specifically, he likens the coerced transaction to interwar-era populism, when economic distress fueled centralized control.
On free speech and outright threats to Big Media, compulsion from the FCC, coupled with regulatory retaliation, is potential proof that the federal government now influences content creation and dissemination. While legal limits exist (namely, the First Amendment), the possibility of further influence creates risk for media companies. To that end, it remains to be seen what the federal government intends to do with TikTok, assuming it is handed over to US authorities. At the very least, new media moguls and entrepreneurs may stay quiet and not embark on business endeavors, chilling private expression and innovation.
These cases piece together a macro mosaic: the executive branch and its appointees are using legislative authority, regulatory power, and financial tools to shape private-sector behavior. All of it dovetails with Dalio’s concerns about evolving institutional norms, where democratic or legal guardrails may be tested, even stressed.
The America First Agenda Is Still on Track
Are we overly critical of Donald Trump and his controversial policies and actions? Maybe. Readers and Allio investors know we hold a sanguine view of the years ahead. Pro-growth measures, including the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), are poised to bring about a manufacturing boom, potentially beginning in 2026. Allio’s team has been surprised, frankly, about how well the macro picture has held up amid all the dire mainstream media headlines and narratives.
The US economy likely grew by close to 3% in the third quarter (inflation-adjusted, annualized), corporate profits are higher than ever, and consumer spending has been downright strong this summer. Even amid a 90-year high in the US effective tariff rate, businesses and households have made it work—and that’s the American spirit in action. New business formation is high, and the world’s leading companies continue to call the US their home.
Trump has also scored major wins, not even a year into his second term. Recall in May, the POTUS toured the Middle East, but it was not just pomp and circumstance. He negotiated landmark deals with nation-states and international private corporations. The president then partnered with NATO to draw increased defense spending from European countries, alleviating some of the financial burden borne by the US. His diplomacy was on display just weeks later domestically, as the OBBBA was signed into law from the White House lawn on Independence Day.
“Promises made, promises kept” holds true, at least for now. The 2026 mid-term elections are in view, and the administration may seek to run the economy hot. Our team expects the upcoming tax refund season to be a mini-spending boom of sorts, given the new tax law. Trump may also have his way at the Fed, with a series of interest rate cuts likely to occur over the next 12 months. Keep in mind that Chair Powell exits stage left next May; the presumption is that another Trump loyalist will succeed the current chairman.
US GDP Growth Near 3% in Q3 2025
Source: Kalshi
What It All Means for Macro Investors
Risks and opportunities present themselves. They always do. Our job is to spot what could go wrong and what keeps working. Some of the risks are obvious; others more subtle. Below are possible implications.
Risks
Regulatory and Political Uncertainty Rises
Arguably, the biggest threat to US dynamism is a stifled private sector; a thriving economy hinges on risk-taking and capital investment. Implicit regulation and political pressure pose challenges to what makes America great. Companies in sectors that intersect with national security, technology, media, and even infrastructure are more exposed. Thus, companies may encounter roadblocks from government demands or conditional grants, restrictions, or expectations that align with political ideologies.
More Cautious Capital Allocation
As a result, private investment may turn more cautious as the federal government’s arm grows longer. We could see this play out via higher risk premiums in the stock market and interest rates in the Treasury market. Furthermore, dealmaking (including IPOs and M&A) could be suffocated as government intervention crowds out other players.
Less Confidence in Financial Institutions
Pressure on institutions like the Fed could harm monetary credibility. If markets believe that central banks are under political sway, inflation expectations, interest rate risk, and risk premiums could rise. Of course, our nearly $40 trillion in federal government debt poses a slew of fiscal challenges, too. Dalio flags this concern, labeling it a possible credit crisis. That's why we closely watch interest rate movements—for now, Treasury yields are stable and low compared to history.
Media Backlash and Even More Partisanship
President Trump has long berated the mainstream media for its disingenuous reporting tactics. Remarks at campaign rallies are one thing, but it’s a whole other situation today, given the apparent pressure applied by the FCC. Reduced independent reporting may affect transparency, which could add to the risk premium factored into markets. In parallel, the left and right could grow even more divided, with both sides tuning out the other. Worse, rhetoric might lead to violence.
IPO Boom Underway?
Source: Bloomberg
Opportunities
Effective Government Subsidies
The good news is that the Trump administration remains business-friendly. It has worked with companies to weather the tariff hit, while lower interest rates today compared to at the start of Trump’s second term help embattled small businesses. Well-thought-out government support has the potential to accelerate capacity, R&D, and scale in certain industries, even if Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, and Ronald Reagan may not have approved.
Clarity in Policy Priorities
CEOs and CIOs crave certainty. So long as they know and understand the ground rules, they will invest and embark on growth endeavors. Today’s regulatory landscape is clearer compared to the days immediately after Liberation Day. Hence, stocks have soared 38% from the April low. For investors, transparent policies—even if they don’t jibe with free-market maxims—breed confidence and the ability to manage risk.
The Market as a Stabilizer
Speaking of Liberation Day, remember what happened in the bond market in mid-April? It turned “yippy,” as President Trump put it. Long-term interest rates spiked above 5%, prompting the administration to reconsider its tariff policy. A 90-day pause on the reciprocal import duties was announced. So, market forces have a way of keeping policymakers (including the president) in check.
Corporate Dealmaking
Beyond the headlines and political gaslighting, Wall Street bankers are hard at work. The IPO window is fully open, and our team of portfolio experts predicts a wave of M&A heading into 2026. Also, be on the lookout for additional spin-offs as conglomerates seek to create shareholder value in creative ways.
S&P 500 +38% off the April Low, Now a 10x from March 2009
Source: Stockcharts.com
What Should Investors Do?
This is no time to rely on a static portfolio. We recently outlined the case for why the 60/40 allocation has worked, but may not in the future. To that end, investors must be globally diversified with exposure to uncorrelated assets. Stocks, bonds, interest-earning cash, commodities, real estate, gold, and cryptocurrency all have a place in a dynamic macro portfolio. Here are strategies you can put to work with Allio:
Stress-Testing Portfolios: Allio’s ALTITUDE AI technology integrates predictive models and macro data to guide portfolio construction and management, in all stages of the economic cycle.
Diversification and Smart Hedging: Spreading risk across asset classes, geographies, and themes may reduce overall volatility, helping investors survive bear markets and thrive in bull markets.
Scenario Analysis: Allio’s managed macro portfolios put capital to work with an open mind, cognizant of what could go well and what events could quickly disrupt the global economy.
Be Macro Aware: We encourage all investors to stay up to speed with our Macro Dashboard, which tracks all the key financial volatility catalysts.
The Bottom Line
The White House-Intel deal and the Kimmel‐FCC episode are flashpoints in a wider pattern of increased government influence over private sector behavior, regulatory enforcement, and public discourse. Ray Dalio’s warnings about evolving autocracy should not be dismissed; we may be in a late stage of his Big Cycle.
Despite the macro worries, markets give sanguine signals. Stocks are near all-time highs, and bond market volatility is now at its lowest level since late 2021.
This stage of the Big Cycle is bigger than the political narrative of the moment. It’s even bigger than President Trump. Hence, investors must adapt by embracing a dynamic macro portfolio as systemic risks grow.
When the Government Comes Marching In: Trump, Markets, and Public-Private Sector Tensions
The Trump Administration continues to exert pressure across industries
Free speech concerns are now at the forefront, worrying parts of the political left and right
Financial markets remain resilient, and we outline the macro risks and opportunities that Ray Dalio has recently opined on
Free-market capitalists have had to come to grips with Trump 2.0. The president continues to have more than just a say in private-sector issues. The “dealmaker-in-chief" has negotiated terms of an equity stake in Intel (INTC), MP Materials (MP), and the creation of a so-called “golden share” to give the federal government influence over Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel (X).
Investors have grown increasingly concerned about what seems like a more muscular reach by the US government into sectors typically thought to operate with some distance from political oversight: corporations, media, and regulatory institutions. With stocks notching all-time highs, President Trump confirmed a 10% equity stake in Intel, with a subsequent investment from NVIDIA (NVDA). Then, the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel Live! struck a chord beyond the financial markets, as the apparent pressure from the FCC caused Disney (the parent company of ABC) to pull the late-night comedy show.
These incidents have raised alarms about state influence over private enterprise and free speech more broadly. Against this backdrop, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the United States may be evolving toward more autocratic norms. Is there cause for alarm? Should you reshuffle your portfolio? These are weighty issues.
There are risks and opportunities. Let’s examine what’s actually happening, without looking through the gritty mainstream media lens. We’ll tie in the current regime with Dalio’s perspectives and what it all may mean for markets. As always, we take our signal from price action and stay anchored to long-term investing principles.
The New Incidents: Intel, Media, and Regulatory Pressure
Two high-profile cases illustrate the backdrop of unprecedented executive reach into the private domain.
Intel and the US Government’s Stake
On August 22, 2025, the Trump administration struck a deal with Intel under which the US government will make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, amounting to about 9.9% ownership. The beleaguered legacy semiconductor giant is now a mere shadow of its former self and has been boat-raced by NVIDIA for years. Long before the August announcement, however, President Trump and even former President Biden aimed to reshore domestic chip manufacturing for a matter of national security.
Traditionally, the federal government is merely a customer in defense companies, not a shareholder. The INTC deal breaks new ground, but there are important nuances to consider.
First, the funding stems from grants awarded under the Biden administration’s previous legislation (the CHIPS and Science Act) and the Secure Enclave program. Trump rejiggered the deal so that instead of a grant, the government owns shares.
Second, the stake is passive, with no board seats or governance rights—the president has underscored this in interviews.
Third, the INTC arrangement includes a warrant for an additional 5% position, which can be exercised at $20 per share if Intel reduces its ownership of its foundry business below 51%, a condition designed to ensure the company maintains control of its manufacturing arm.
Critics are uneasy. Some see this as state intervention in what is supposed to be market‐driven innovation, with risks of political pressure stretching beyond this case. Others argue it's necessary for national security and strategic technology sovereignty, especially in semiconductors, AI, and the ever-vulnerable tech supply chain.
Bigger picture, it begs the question: What happens when the shoe is on the other foot? Trump supporters and populist Republicans may support this share grab, but what about when a Democrat orchestrates such a future deal? As with many of Trump’s actions, this sets a worrisome precedent for when the balance of power shifts.
Congrats: The US Taxpayer is +48% on the Intel Stake
Source: Stockcharts.com
Jimmy Kimmel, the FCC, and Free Speech Concerns
A separate but related episode concerns media, regulation, and speech. Jimmy Kimmel Live! was suspended indefinitely by ABC following backlash over comments made in Kimmel’s recent monologue about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. It wasn’t so much the conservative response that drew scrutiny.
Rather, the turning point was FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatening regulatory action against ABC or its affiliates, suggesting that airing certain content could put network broadcasters at risk with respect to their FCC licensing and public‐interest obligations. Carr was outspoken about Kimmel's “jokes” about the MAGA movement immediately after Kirk’s September 10th assassination, deriding the comic’s remarks as “the sickest conduct possible.”
Within hours, affiliates like Nexstar Media Group, itself awaiting FCC approval for a $6.2 billion acquisition of a company called Tegna, opted to preempt the show, citing "offensive and insensitive" content. ABC followed suit, which immediately sent Hollywood up in arms. What’s more, free speech organizations, civil liberties groups, and politicians objected, calling it censorship. Of course, these are some of the same outfits that had no qualms about Roseanne, Tucker Carlson, Tim Allen (among others) being taken off the air for political commentary.
Another perspective? The big three TV networks may simply be looking for excuses to remove unprofitable shows from their respective lineups. Late-night comedy programs have morphed from Johnny Carson's snappy cultural one-liners to modern political verbal diaries, seeking political agreement from audiences, not laughs. Today, Americans seem to prefer getting jokes from YouTube, TikTok, or even cable news. Fox News’ Gutfeld! consistently ranks as the top-rated late-night program, even with the non-Baby Boomer 18-49 age demographic.
Perhaps the real concern is what happens next. Legal experts note that while the First Amendment shields against direct government censorship, indirect coercion (via merger approvals or funding cuts) poses a grayer threat. Trump himself amplified the pressure, suggesting that networks "against" him may lose their licenses, while deferring to Carr's discretion.
Free Speech Under Siege?
Source: Fox News
Dalio's Warning: Autocracy's Creep and Investor Jitters
Ray Dalio weighed in. His public remarks were nothing short of a warning to investors that the US shows signs of sliding toward what he dubs “1930s-style autocracy.” In a September Financial Times interview, the legendary hedge fund manager called out several key points that could bring about macro turmoil if not managed responsibly in the years ahead:
Growing State Intervention
Dalio points to deeper government involvement in private corporations as evidence of the state’s desire to reassert control over economic and financial decisions. This is a key facet of the Big Cycle, which we detail in our seminal The Macro Masterpiece article. Nations rise and fall, and “the top” is often marked by a less productive society, an overextended government, a loss of economic competitiveness, and widening wealth gaps. Germaine to today, Dalio cited the Intel deal as an example of “strong autocratic leadership.” Conservatives of Milton Friedman’s ilk might label it “crony capitalism.”
Wealth & Value Gaps
Also tethered to the Big Cycle is the modern “K-shaped” economy. There are haves and have-nots; those who grow richer with each percentage-point climb in the S&P 500 and those who struggle to afford necessary goods and services. Dalio criticized increasing political and social polarization, inequality, and eroding trust between citizens and institutions. It’s a vicious cycle that feeds the big-government machine’s centralized power. On the left and right, when people lose faith that democratic processes function fairly, there is more acceptance of executive power or regulatory overreach.
Risk to Institutional Independence
Dalio also warns about risks to the independence of institutions like the Federal Reserve. As the FTC/Kimmel drama played out, the Fed gathered to decide on the direction of interest rates. A rookie was in the room. His name was Stephen Miran, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers to the president. Many economists are unsettled by Miran, a Trump loyalist, filling the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. It’s a topic we have delved into before, and Miran was the lone dissenter in the 12-vote tally to cut rates by a quarter point. That’s a case in point of broader angst about politicizing appointments or exerting pressure to redirect policy.
Political Fear and Market Behavior
The Financial Times article details Dalio’s concerns that many market participants are privately worried, but reluctant to speak out openly, due to the possibility of retaliation or political risk. Meanwhile, growing deficits, debt accumulation, and federal spending without long‐term fiscal discipline pose macro risks. President Trump has been effective in “herding the cats,” so to speak, on key political decisions and paths. Unlike his first term, there have been few mavericks in Trump’s cabinet. Consensus-building may be effective in enacting an agenda, but it may also result in growing systemic perils.
Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle
Source: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
Mapping the Connections: Trump’s Heavy Hand in Practice
Putting these together, the Intel deal and the Kimmel‐FCC episode are concrete cases of what Dalio fears:
In Intel’s case, the government as a shareholder blurs the public-private boundaries. Even though the stake is passive, the optics, negotiation, and leverage suggest that companies may be more beholden to political priorities. "State intervention in the private sector... is the sort of strong autocratic leadership that sprang out of the desire to take control of the financial and economic situation,” claims Dalio. Specifically, he likens the coerced transaction to interwar-era populism, when economic distress fueled centralized control.
On free speech and outright threats to Big Media, compulsion from the FCC, coupled with regulatory retaliation, is potential proof that the federal government now influences content creation and dissemination. While legal limits exist (namely, the First Amendment), the possibility of further influence creates risk for media companies. To that end, it remains to be seen what the federal government intends to do with TikTok, assuming it is handed over to US authorities. At the very least, new media moguls and entrepreneurs may stay quiet and not embark on business endeavors, chilling private expression and innovation.
These cases piece together a macro mosaic: the executive branch and its appointees are using legislative authority, regulatory power, and financial tools to shape private-sector behavior. All of it dovetails with Dalio’s concerns about evolving institutional norms, where democratic or legal guardrails may be tested, even stressed.
The America First Agenda Is Still on Track
Are we overly critical of Donald Trump and his controversial policies and actions? Maybe. Readers and Allio investors know we hold a sanguine view of the years ahead. Pro-growth measures, including the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), are poised to bring about a manufacturing boom, potentially beginning in 2026. Allio’s team has been surprised, frankly, about how well the macro picture has held up amid all the dire mainstream media headlines and narratives.
The US economy likely grew by close to 3% in the third quarter (inflation-adjusted, annualized), corporate profits are higher than ever, and consumer spending has been downright strong this summer. Even amid a 90-year high in the US effective tariff rate, businesses and households have made it work—and that’s the American spirit in action. New business formation is high, and the world’s leading companies continue to call the US their home.
Trump has also scored major wins, not even a year into his second term. Recall in May, the POTUS toured the Middle East, but it was not just pomp and circumstance. He negotiated landmark deals with nation-states and international private corporations. The president then partnered with NATO to draw increased defense spending from European countries, alleviating some of the financial burden borne by the US. His diplomacy was on display just weeks later domestically, as the OBBBA was signed into law from the White House lawn on Independence Day.
“Promises made, promises kept” holds true, at least for now. The 2026 mid-term elections are in view, and the administration may seek to run the economy hot. Our team expects the upcoming tax refund season to be a mini-spending boom of sorts, given the new tax law. Trump may also have his way at the Fed, with a series of interest rate cuts likely to occur over the next 12 months. Keep in mind that Chair Powell exits stage left next May; the presumption is that another Trump loyalist will succeed the current chairman.
US GDP Growth Near 3% in Q3 2025
Source: Kalshi
What It All Means for Macro Investors
Risks and opportunities present themselves. They always do. Our job is to spot what could go wrong and what keeps working. Some of the risks are obvious; others more subtle. Below are possible implications.
Risks
Regulatory and Political Uncertainty Rises
Arguably, the biggest threat to US dynamism is a stifled private sector; a thriving economy hinges on risk-taking and capital investment. Implicit regulation and political pressure pose challenges to what makes America great. Companies in sectors that intersect with national security, technology, media, and even infrastructure are more exposed. Thus, companies may encounter roadblocks from government demands or conditional grants, restrictions, or expectations that align with political ideologies.
More Cautious Capital Allocation
As a result, private investment may turn more cautious as the federal government’s arm grows longer. We could see this play out via higher risk premiums in the stock market and interest rates in the Treasury market. Furthermore, dealmaking (including IPOs and M&A) could be suffocated as government intervention crowds out other players.
Less Confidence in Financial Institutions
Pressure on institutions like the Fed could harm monetary credibility. If markets believe that central banks are under political sway, inflation expectations, interest rate risk, and risk premiums could rise. Of course, our nearly $40 trillion in federal government debt poses a slew of fiscal challenges, too. Dalio flags this concern, labeling it a possible credit crisis. That's why we closely watch interest rate movements—for now, Treasury yields are stable and low compared to history.
Media Backlash and Even More Partisanship
President Trump has long berated the mainstream media for its disingenuous reporting tactics. Remarks at campaign rallies are one thing, but it’s a whole other situation today, given the apparent pressure applied by the FCC. Reduced independent reporting may affect transparency, which could add to the risk premium factored into markets. In parallel, the left and right could grow even more divided, with both sides tuning out the other. Worse, rhetoric might lead to violence.
IPO Boom Underway?
Source: Bloomberg
Opportunities
Effective Government Subsidies
The good news is that the Trump administration remains business-friendly. It has worked with companies to weather the tariff hit, while lower interest rates today compared to at the start of Trump’s second term help embattled small businesses. Well-thought-out government support has the potential to accelerate capacity, R&D, and scale in certain industries, even if Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, and Ronald Reagan may not have approved.
Clarity in Policy Priorities
CEOs and CIOs crave certainty. So long as they know and understand the ground rules, they will invest and embark on growth endeavors. Today’s regulatory landscape is clearer compared to the days immediately after Liberation Day. Hence, stocks have soared 38% from the April low. For investors, transparent policies—even if they don’t jibe with free-market maxims—breed confidence and the ability to manage risk.
The Market as a Stabilizer
Speaking of Liberation Day, remember what happened in the bond market in mid-April? It turned “yippy,” as President Trump put it. Long-term interest rates spiked above 5%, prompting the administration to reconsider its tariff policy. A 90-day pause on the reciprocal import duties was announced. So, market forces have a way of keeping policymakers (including the president) in check.
Corporate Dealmaking
Beyond the headlines and political gaslighting, Wall Street bankers are hard at work. The IPO window is fully open, and our team of portfolio experts predicts a wave of M&A heading into 2026. Also, be on the lookout for additional spin-offs as conglomerates seek to create shareholder value in creative ways.
S&P 500 +38% off the April Low, Now a 10x from March 2009
Source: Stockcharts.com
What Should Investors Do?
This is no time to rely on a static portfolio. We recently outlined the case for why the 60/40 allocation has worked, but may not in the future. To that end, investors must be globally diversified with exposure to uncorrelated assets. Stocks, bonds, interest-earning cash, commodities, real estate, gold, and cryptocurrency all have a place in a dynamic macro portfolio. Here are strategies you can put to work with Allio:
Stress-Testing Portfolios: Allio’s ALTITUDE AI technology integrates predictive models and macro data to guide portfolio construction and management, in all stages of the economic cycle.
Diversification and Smart Hedging: Spreading risk across asset classes, geographies, and themes may reduce overall volatility, helping investors survive bear markets and thrive in bull markets.
Scenario Analysis: Allio’s managed macro portfolios put capital to work with an open mind, cognizant of what could go well and what events could quickly disrupt the global economy.
Be Macro Aware: We encourage all investors to stay up to speed with our Macro Dashboard, which tracks all the key financial volatility catalysts.
The Bottom Line
The White House-Intel deal and the Kimmel‐FCC episode are flashpoints in a wider pattern of increased government influence over private sector behavior, regulatory enforcement, and public discourse. Ray Dalio’s warnings about evolving autocracy should not be dismissed; we may be in a late stage of his Big Cycle.
Despite the macro worries, markets give sanguine signals. Stocks are near all-time highs, and bond market volatility is now at its lowest level since late 2021.
This stage of the Big Cycle is bigger than the political narrative of the moment. It’s even bigger than President Trump. Hence, investors must adapt by embracing a dynamic macro portfolio as systemic risks grow.
When the Government Comes Marching In: Trump, Markets, and Public-Private Sector Tensions
The Trump Administration continues to exert pressure across industries
Free speech concerns are now at the forefront, worrying parts of the political left and right
Financial markets remain resilient, and we outline the macro risks and opportunities that Ray Dalio has recently opined on
Free-market capitalists have had to come to grips with Trump 2.0. The president continues to have more than just a say in private-sector issues. The “dealmaker-in-chief" has negotiated terms of an equity stake in Intel (INTC), MP Materials (MP), and the creation of a so-called “golden share” to give the federal government influence over Nippon Steel’s acquisition of US Steel (X).
Investors have grown increasingly concerned about what seems like a more muscular reach by the US government into sectors typically thought to operate with some distance from political oversight: corporations, media, and regulatory institutions. With stocks notching all-time highs, President Trump confirmed a 10% equity stake in Intel, with a subsequent investment from NVIDIA (NVDA). Then, the suspension of Jimmy Kimmel Live! struck a chord beyond the financial markets, as the apparent pressure from the FCC caused Disney (the parent company of ABC) to pull the late-night comedy show.
These incidents have raised alarms about state influence over private enterprise and free speech more broadly. Against this backdrop, Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates, warns that the United States may be evolving toward more autocratic norms. Is there cause for alarm? Should you reshuffle your portfolio? These are weighty issues.
There are risks and opportunities. Let’s examine what’s actually happening, without looking through the gritty mainstream media lens. We’ll tie in the current regime with Dalio’s perspectives and what it all may mean for markets. As always, we take our signal from price action and stay anchored to long-term investing principles.
The New Incidents: Intel, Media, and Regulatory Pressure
Two high-profile cases illustrate the backdrop of unprecedented executive reach into the private domain.
Intel and the US Government’s Stake
On August 22, 2025, the Trump administration struck a deal with Intel under which the US government will make an $8.9 billion investment in Intel common stock, amounting to about 9.9% ownership. The beleaguered legacy semiconductor giant is now a mere shadow of its former self and has been boat-raced by NVIDIA for years. Long before the August announcement, however, President Trump and even former President Biden aimed to reshore domestic chip manufacturing for a matter of national security.
Traditionally, the federal government is merely a customer in defense companies, not a shareholder. The INTC deal breaks new ground, but there are important nuances to consider.
First, the funding stems from grants awarded under the Biden administration’s previous legislation (the CHIPS and Science Act) and the Secure Enclave program. Trump rejiggered the deal so that instead of a grant, the government owns shares.
Second, the stake is passive, with no board seats or governance rights—the president has underscored this in interviews.
Third, the INTC arrangement includes a warrant for an additional 5% position, which can be exercised at $20 per share if Intel reduces its ownership of its foundry business below 51%, a condition designed to ensure the company maintains control of its manufacturing arm.
Critics are uneasy. Some see this as state intervention in what is supposed to be market‐driven innovation, with risks of political pressure stretching beyond this case. Others argue it's necessary for national security and strategic technology sovereignty, especially in semiconductors, AI, and the ever-vulnerable tech supply chain.
Bigger picture, it begs the question: What happens when the shoe is on the other foot? Trump supporters and populist Republicans may support this share grab, but what about when a Democrat orchestrates such a future deal? As with many of Trump’s actions, this sets a worrisome precedent for when the balance of power shifts.
Congrats: The US Taxpayer is +48% on the Intel Stake
Source: Stockcharts.com
Jimmy Kimmel, the FCC, and Free Speech Concerns
A separate but related episode concerns media, regulation, and speech. Jimmy Kimmel Live! was suspended indefinitely by ABC following backlash over comments made in Kimmel’s recent monologue about the assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk. It wasn’t so much the conservative response that drew scrutiny.
Rather, the turning point was FCC Chair Brendan Carr threatening regulatory action against ABC or its affiliates, suggesting that airing certain content could put network broadcasters at risk with respect to their FCC licensing and public‐interest obligations. Carr was outspoken about Kimmel's “jokes” about the MAGA movement immediately after Kirk’s September 10th assassination, deriding the comic’s remarks as “the sickest conduct possible.”
Within hours, affiliates like Nexstar Media Group, itself awaiting FCC approval for a $6.2 billion acquisition of a company called Tegna, opted to preempt the show, citing "offensive and insensitive" content. ABC followed suit, which immediately sent Hollywood up in arms. What’s more, free speech organizations, civil liberties groups, and politicians objected, calling it censorship. Of course, these are some of the same outfits that had no qualms about Roseanne, Tucker Carlson, Tim Allen (among others) being taken off the air for political commentary.
Another perspective? The big three TV networks may simply be looking for excuses to remove unprofitable shows from their respective lineups. Late-night comedy programs have morphed from Johnny Carson's snappy cultural one-liners to modern political verbal diaries, seeking political agreement from audiences, not laughs. Today, Americans seem to prefer getting jokes from YouTube, TikTok, or even cable news. Fox News’ Gutfeld! consistently ranks as the top-rated late-night program, even with the non-Baby Boomer 18-49 age demographic.
Perhaps the real concern is what happens next. Legal experts note that while the First Amendment shields against direct government censorship, indirect coercion (via merger approvals or funding cuts) poses a grayer threat. Trump himself amplified the pressure, suggesting that networks "against" him may lose their licenses, while deferring to Carr's discretion.
Free Speech Under Siege?
Source: Fox News
Dalio's Warning: Autocracy's Creep and Investor Jitters
Ray Dalio weighed in. His public remarks were nothing short of a warning to investors that the US shows signs of sliding toward what he dubs “1930s-style autocracy.” In a September Financial Times interview, the legendary hedge fund manager called out several key points that could bring about macro turmoil if not managed responsibly in the years ahead:
Growing State Intervention
Dalio points to deeper government involvement in private corporations as evidence of the state’s desire to reassert control over economic and financial decisions. This is a key facet of the Big Cycle, which we detail in our seminal The Macro Masterpiece article. Nations rise and fall, and “the top” is often marked by a less productive society, an overextended government, a loss of economic competitiveness, and widening wealth gaps. Germaine to today, Dalio cited the Intel deal as an example of “strong autocratic leadership.” Conservatives of Milton Friedman’s ilk might label it “crony capitalism.”
Wealth & Value Gaps
Also tethered to the Big Cycle is the modern “K-shaped” economy. There are haves and have-nots; those who grow richer with each percentage-point climb in the S&P 500 and those who struggle to afford necessary goods and services. Dalio criticized increasing political and social polarization, inequality, and eroding trust between citizens and institutions. It’s a vicious cycle that feeds the big-government machine’s centralized power. On the left and right, when people lose faith that democratic processes function fairly, there is more acceptance of executive power or regulatory overreach.
Risk to Institutional Independence
Dalio also warns about risks to the independence of institutions like the Federal Reserve. As the FTC/Kimmel drama played out, the Fed gathered to decide on the direction of interest rates. A rookie was in the room. His name was Stephen Miran, former chair of the Council of Economic Advisers to the president. Many economists are unsettled by Miran, a Trump loyalist, filling the seat vacated by Adriana Kugler. It’s a topic we have delved into before, and Miran was the lone dissenter in the 12-vote tally to cut rates by a quarter point. That’s a case in point of broader angst about politicizing appointments or exerting pressure to redirect policy.
Political Fear and Market Behavior
The Financial Times article details Dalio’s concerns that many market participants are privately worried, but reluctant to speak out openly, due to the possibility of retaliation or political risk. Meanwhile, growing deficits, debt accumulation, and federal spending without long‐term fiscal discipline pose macro risks. President Trump has been effective in “herding the cats,” so to speak, on key political decisions and paths. Unlike his first term, there have been few mavericks in Trump’s cabinet. Consensus-building may be effective in enacting an agenda, but it may also result in growing systemic perils.
Ray Dalio’s Big Cycle
Source: Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail
Mapping the Connections: Trump’s Heavy Hand in Practice
Putting these together, the Intel deal and the Kimmel‐FCC episode are concrete cases of what Dalio fears:
In Intel’s case, the government as a shareholder blurs the public-private boundaries. Even though the stake is passive, the optics, negotiation, and leverage suggest that companies may be more beholden to political priorities. "State intervention in the private sector... is the sort of strong autocratic leadership that sprang out of the desire to take control of the financial and economic situation,” claims Dalio. Specifically, he likens the coerced transaction to interwar-era populism, when economic distress fueled centralized control.
On free speech and outright threats to Big Media, compulsion from the FCC, coupled with regulatory retaliation, is potential proof that the federal government now influences content creation and dissemination. While legal limits exist (namely, the First Amendment), the possibility of further influence creates risk for media companies. To that end, it remains to be seen what the federal government intends to do with TikTok, assuming it is handed over to US authorities. At the very least, new media moguls and entrepreneurs may stay quiet and not embark on business endeavors, chilling private expression and innovation.
These cases piece together a macro mosaic: the executive branch and its appointees are using legislative authority, regulatory power, and financial tools to shape private-sector behavior. All of it dovetails with Dalio’s concerns about evolving institutional norms, where democratic or legal guardrails may be tested, even stressed.
The America First Agenda Is Still on Track
Are we overly critical of Donald Trump and his controversial policies and actions? Maybe. Readers and Allio investors know we hold a sanguine view of the years ahead. Pro-growth measures, including the One Big, Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), are poised to bring about a manufacturing boom, potentially beginning in 2026. Allio’s team has been surprised, frankly, about how well the macro picture has held up amid all the dire mainstream media headlines and narratives.
The US economy likely grew by close to 3% in the third quarter (inflation-adjusted, annualized), corporate profits are higher than ever, and consumer spending has been downright strong this summer. Even amid a 90-year high in the US effective tariff rate, businesses and households have made it work—and that’s the American spirit in action. New business formation is high, and the world’s leading companies continue to call the US their home.
Trump has also scored major wins, not even a year into his second term. Recall in May, the POTUS toured the Middle East, but it was not just pomp and circumstance. He negotiated landmark deals with nation-states and international private corporations. The president then partnered with NATO to draw increased defense spending from European countries, alleviating some of the financial burden borne by the US. His diplomacy was on display just weeks later domestically, as the OBBBA was signed into law from the White House lawn on Independence Day.
“Promises made, promises kept” holds true, at least for now. The 2026 mid-term elections are in view, and the administration may seek to run the economy hot. Our team expects the upcoming tax refund season to be a mini-spending boom of sorts, given the new tax law. Trump may also have his way at the Fed, with a series of interest rate cuts likely to occur over the next 12 months. Keep in mind that Chair Powell exits stage left next May; the presumption is that another Trump loyalist will succeed the current chairman.
US GDP Growth Near 3% in Q3 2025
Source: Kalshi
What It All Means for Macro Investors
Risks and opportunities present themselves. They always do. Our job is to spot what could go wrong and what keeps working. Some of the risks are obvious; others more subtle. Below are possible implications.
Risks
Regulatory and Political Uncertainty Rises
Arguably, the biggest threat to US dynamism is a stifled private sector; a thriving economy hinges on risk-taking and capital investment. Implicit regulation and political pressure pose challenges to what makes America great. Companies in sectors that intersect with national security, technology, media, and even infrastructure are more exposed. Thus, companies may encounter roadblocks from government demands or conditional grants, restrictions, or expectations that align with political ideologies.
More Cautious Capital Allocation
As a result, private investment may turn more cautious as the federal government’s arm grows longer. We could see this play out via higher risk premiums in the stock market and interest rates in the Treasury market. Furthermore, dealmaking (including IPOs and M&A) could be suffocated as government intervention crowds out other players.
Less Confidence in Financial Institutions
Pressure on institutions like the Fed could harm monetary credibility. If markets believe that central banks are under political sway, inflation expectations, interest rate risk, and risk premiums could rise. Of course, our nearly $40 trillion in federal government debt poses a slew of fiscal challenges, too. Dalio flags this concern, labeling it a possible credit crisis. That's why we closely watch interest rate movements—for now, Treasury yields are stable and low compared to history.
Media Backlash and Even More Partisanship
President Trump has long berated the mainstream media for its disingenuous reporting tactics. Remarks at campaign rallies are one thing, but it’s a whole other situation today, given the apparent pressure applied by the FCC. Reduced independent reporting may affect transparency, which could add to the risk premium factored into markets. In parallel, the left and right could grow even more divided, with both sides tuning out the other. Worse, rhetoric might lead to violence.
IPO Boom Underway?
Source: Bloomberg
Opportunities
Effective Government Subsidies
The good news is that the Trump administration remains business-friendly. It has worked with companies to weather the tariff hit, while lower interest rates today compared to at the start of Trump’s second term help embattled small businesses. Well-thought-out government support has the potential to accelerate capacity, R&D, and scale in certain industries, even if Adam Smith, Milton Friedman, and Ronald Reagan may not have approved.
Clarity in Policy Priorities
CEOs and CIOs crave certainty. So long as they know and understand the ground rules, they will invest and embark on growth endeavors. Today’s regulatory landscape is clearer compared to the days immediately after Liberation Day. Hence, stocks have soared 38% from the April low. For investors, transparent policies—even if they don’t jibe with free-market maxims—breed confidence and the ability to manage risk.
The Market as a Stabilizer
Speaking of Liberation Day, remember what happened in the bond market in mid-April? It turned “yippy,” as President Trump put it. Long-term interest rates spiked above 5%, prompting the administration to reconsider its tariff policy. A 90-day pause on the reciprocal import duties was announced. So, market forces have a way of keeping policymakers (including the president) in check.
Corporate Dealmaking
Beyond the headlines and political gaslighting, Wall Street bankers are hard at work. The IPO window is fully open, and our team of portfolio experts predicts a wave of M&A heading into 2026. Also, be on the lookout for additional spin-offs as conglomerates seek to create shareholder value in creative ways.
S&P 500 +38% off the April Low, Now a 10x from March 2009
Source: Stockcharts.com
What Should Investors Do?
This is no time to rely on a static portfolio. We recently outlined the case for why the 60/40 allocation has worked, but may not in the future. To that end, investors must be globally diversified with exposure to uncorrelated assets. Stocks, bonds, interest-earning cash, commodities, real estate, gold, and cryptocurrency all have a place in a dynamic macro portfolio. Here are strategies you can put to work with Allio:
Stress-Testing Portfolios: Allio’s ALTITUDE AI technology integrates predictive models and macro data to guide portfolio construction and management, in all stages of the economic cycle.
Diversification and Smart Hedging: Spreading risk across asset classes, geographies, and themes may reduce overall volatility, helping investors survive bear markets and thrive in bull markets.
Scenario Analysis: Allio’s managed macro portfolios put capital to work with an open mind, cognizant of what could go well and what events could quickly disrupt the global economy.
Be Macro Aware: We encourage all investors to stay up to speed with our Macro Dashboard, which tracks all the key financial volatility catalysts.
The Bottom Line
The White House-Intel deal and the Kimmel‐FCC episode are flashpoints in a wider pattern of increased government influence over private sector behavior, regulatory enforcement, and public discourse. Ray Dalio’s warnings about evolving autocracy should not be dismissed; we may be in a late stage of his Big Cycle.
Despite the macro worries, markets give sanguine signals. Stocks are near all-time highs, and bond market volatility is now at its lowest level since late 2021.
This stage of the Big Cycle is bigger than the political narrative of the moment. It’s even bigger than President Trump. Hence, investors must adapt by embracing a dynamic macro portfolio as systemic risks grow.
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